GenAI Must Generate $600B A Year To Justify Hardware Costs, Sequoia Estimates: How Much Does Google Search Make?
GenAI Must Generate $600B A Year To Justify Hardware Costs, Sequoia Estimates: How Much Does Google Search Make?
Artificial intelligence (AI) has taken the markets by storm, catapulting several AI-related stocks to all-time highs.
人工智能已經風靡市場，推高了幾隻與人工智能有關的股票到歷史高點。
Amid concerns that AI's rally is a "bubble," a new report from Sequoia Capital cast doubt on whether firms will ever be able to recoup hardware costs.
有人擔心人工智能的漲勢是“泡沫”，Sequoia Capital的一份新報告質疑公司是否能夠收回硬體成本。
Sequoia's Report: A report from Sequoia Capital written by David Cahn estimated that AI needs to generate $600 billion a year to justify its immense hardware costs.
Sequoia Capital的一份由David Cahn撰寫的報告估計，人工智能需要每年產生六千億美元的收益來證明它巨大的硬體成本是值得的。
Cahn arrived at the $600 billion number by taking NVIDIA Corp's (NASDAQ:NVDA) fourth-quarter GPU revenue of $150 billion and doubling it to account for the cost of AI data centers. Cahn doubled the resulting $300 billion to account for a 50% gross margin for the end-user of the GPU.
Cahn通過將NVIDIA公司（納斯達克上市公司NVDA）在第四季度GPU芯片的收益1500億美元翻番來計算出6000億美元的這個數字。Cahn將結果的3000億美元翻番，以考慮GPU最終用戶的50%毛利率。
GPU stockpiles have steadily increased as supply shortages have diminished.
由於供應短缺得到緩解，GPU（圖像處理器）的庫存穩步增加。
Cahn assumes that Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Oracle Corp, ByteDance, Alibaba Group, Tencent Holdings, X and Tesla Inc will generate a combined $100 billion from new AI-related revenue each year. The estimate creates a $500 billion gap between revenue and cost.
Cahn認爲，Alphabet公司、微軟公司、蘋果公司、Meta Platforms Inc、Oracle公司、字節跳動、阿里巴巴集團、騰訊控股、X和特斯拉公司將每年產生1000億美元的新的與人工智能相關的收益。這個估計產生了5000億美元的營收和成本差距。
What About Google Search?: Alphabet Inc's flagship Google Search made $175 billion in 2023, according to company filings. Google is the world's preeminent search engine and captures a gigantic market share.
那麼搜索引擎呢？：據公司文件顯示，Alphabet公司的旗艦Google搜索在2023年的收益爲1750億美元。Google是全球最重要的搜索引擎，佔據了巨大的市場份額。
Therefore, generative AI must generate nearly 3.5 times the annual revenue of Google Search to turn a profit, a tall task indeed.
因此，生成式人工智能必須產生將近谷歌搜索年收入的3.5倍，才能盈利，這無疑是一項艱鉅的任務。
Market Implications: While some signs are encouraging that AI will eventually prove valuable to consumers, it is no sure thing that it will ever turn a profit over GPU stockpile costs.
雖然有一些跡象表明人工智能最終將對消費者產生價值，但並不確定它是否能夠盈利，因爲要消耗大量GPU庫存的成本。
In determining the industry's prospects, experts (such as Forbes' Peter Cohan) have noted the importance of an "AI killer," a use case that is a clear, highly desirable value-add for consumers. A historical example is spreadsheets during the personal computing revolution.
在確定該行業前景時，專家們（如福布斯的彼得·科漢）注意到“AI killer”的重要性，這是對消費者來說具有明確、高度可取且附加價值的使用情況。個人計算機革命期間的電子表格就是一個歷史性的例子。
No such feature exists yet, as customers currently seem reluctant to spend money on AI. It may be months or years before a killer use case exists, if ever. The release of OpenAI's long-awaited GPT-5 could serve as a potential catalyst if the release lives up to lofty expectations. Alternatively, AI's future use case may be far from our current expectations.
目前沒有這樣的功能，因爲客戶目前似乎不願意在人工智能上花費金錢。如果OpenAI長期期望的GPt-5發佈符合預期，可能會成爲一個潛在的催化劑。或者，人工智能未來的使用情況可能與我們目前的預期有很大不同。
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Image: Pixabay
圖片：Pixabay