The Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) Corporation Limited (HKG:2411) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 26%. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 60% loss during that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, there still wouldn't be many who think Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)'s price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.7x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Hong Kong is similar at about 9x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Recent times have been advantageous for Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this strong earnings performance might be about to tail off. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Is There Some Growth For Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)?

Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)'s P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 6.6%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 596% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 6.8% each year as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 16% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Following Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group)'s share price tumble, its P/E is now hanging on to the median market P/E. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Shenzhen Pagoda Industrial (Group) (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com