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China Shenhua Energy's (HKG:1088) Three-year Total Shareholder Returns Outpace the Underlying Earnings Growth

China Shenhua Energy's (HKG:1088) Three-year Total Shareholder Returns Outpace the Underlying Earnings Growth

中國神華能源(HKG:1088)的三年總股東回報率超過了基礎收益增長。
Simply Wall St ·  07/11 21:00

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited (HKG:1088) shareholders have seen the share price descend 11% over the month. In contrast, the return over three years has been impressive. In three years the stock price has launched 126% higher: a great result. To some, the recent share price pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a good run. If the business can perform well for years to come, then the recent drop could be an opportunity.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 8.8%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During three years of share price growth, China Shenhua Energy achieved compound earnings per share growth of 15% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 31% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

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SEHK:1088 Earnings Per Share Growth July 12th 2024

Dive deeper into China Shenhua Energy's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of China Shenhua Energy's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, China Shenhua Energy's TSR for the last 3 years was 208%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that China Shenhua Energy shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 53% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 30% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - China Shenhua Energy has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

But note: China Shenhua Energy may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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