Stable OPR Rate Sustains Economic Growth Momentum, Ringgit's Outlook: Maybank IB
Stable OPR Rate Sustains Economic Growth Momentum, Ringgit's Outlook: Maybank IB
Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB), on the BNM Monetary Policy decision on the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) being maintained at 3.00%, said today that comparing the latest and previous rate decisions, BNM maintained its assessment of continued global growth amid resilient job market, global tech upcycle and trade recovery that cushion the impact of tight monetary policy and fiscal stimulus withdrawal, as well as the view that the risk to global growth outlook remained biased to the downside on factors like escalations in geopolitical tensions, higher-than-expected inflation and financial market volatility.
馬來亞銀行投資銀行（Maybank IB）在馬來西亞銀行保持3.00%的夜間政策利率（OPR）決策上表示，與最新和以前的利率決策相比，馬來西亞銀行維持了對於全球經濟持續增長的評估，因爲堅韌的就業市場、全球科技週期和貿易復甦有助於緩解緊縮的貨幣政策和財政刺激的影響，以及全球增長前景的風險依然偏向問題，如地緣政治緊張局勢升級、通脹高於預期和金融市場波動。
Domestically, BNM expect sustained economic growth momentum in 2Q 2024 driven by resilient domestic demand on continued employment and wage growth and as tourist arrivals and spending are poised to rise further to support private consumption, plus private and public investment growth from progress in the multi-year projects implementation of catalytic initiatives under master plans announced last year (e.g. National Energy Transition Roadmap; National Industrial Master Plan 2030) and the realisation of the robust approved investments past three years.
在國內，預計由於持續的就業和工資增長以及隨着旅遊人數和支出的增加，以支持私人消費，還有多年計劃實施中催化劑舉措下的進展（例如，國家能源轉型路線圖;2023年國家工業主宰計劃），以及過去三年中巨大的批准投資的實現，BNm預計第二季度2024年經濟會保持增長勢頭。
There is also better export performance as global tech upcycle gathers momentum as well as growth in non-E&E exports.
隨着全球技術高潮的增加以及非電子和電氣出口的增長，出口表現也有所改善。
Risks to domestic economic outlook are balanced between the downsides to external demand and commodity output, and the upsides from greater spillover from the tech upcycle, more robust tourism activity and faster implementation of existing and new projects.
國內經濟前景的風險在外部需求和商品產出的不利因素與科技高潮的更大溢出效應、更強勁的旅遊業和現有和新項目的快速實施的利好因素之間保持平衡。
Inflation stays tame as per the "+2% YoY or less" monthly headline and core inflation since Sep 2023 and Nov 2023 respectively. However, the risk is tilted to the upside in the wake of the adjustments in consumption-related taxes – especially the Services Tax on 1 Mar 2024, and the implementation of targeted diesel subsidy on 10 June 2024.
自2023年9月和11月以來，根據每月的頭條和核心通貨膨脹率+2％ YoY或以下的數據，通脹一直保持平穩。然而，由於與消費相關的稅收調整（特別是3月1日的服務稅）以及6月10日定向柴油補貼的實施，風險傾向於上行。
Headline inflation rate in May 2024 picked up to +2% YoY after 3 straight months of +1.8% YoY print in Feb-Apr 2024, while core inflation picked up to +1.9% YoY in Apr-May 2024 from +1.7% YoY in Mar 2024.
2024年5月，當月的headline通脹率爲+2％ YoY，連續3個月在2024年2-4月的+1.8％ YoY後回升，而核心通脹率爲4-5月2024年從3月2024年的+1.7％ YoY上升至+1.9％ YoY。
BNM's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) remarked that inflation will trend higher in 2H 2024 due to the diesel subsidy rationalisation, but will remain manageable given the mitigation measures to minimise the cost impact on businesses, and maintained that the upside risk to inflation would be dependent on the extent of spillover effects of further domestic policy measures on subsidies and price controls to broader price trends, as well as global commodity prices and financial market developments. BNM maintained 2024 headline and core inflation rates' forecast ranges of 2.0%-3.5% and 2.0%-3.0% respectively.
BNM的貨幣政策聲明（MPS）指出，由於柴油補貼的合理化，通貨膨脹率將在2024年下半年趨勢上升，但鑑於緩和措施以最大限度地減少對企業成本的影響，通脹的上行風險仍然可控制，同時維持對通脹的預期上行風險取決於進一步的國內政策措施對補貼和價格管制的影響程度，進一步決定可轉嫁給更廣泛的價格趨勢。以及全球商品價格和金融市場發展。BNm維護2024年headline和核心通貨膨脹率的預測範圍分別爲2.0％-3.5％和2.0％-3.0％。
... and US Fed's hold for longer to keep OPR at 3.00%
...和聯儲局長揸將OPR保持在3.00％
Maybank IB expects the OPR to remain at 3.00% throughout 2024 given their forecasts of GDP growth pick up (2024E: +4.7%; 1Q 2024: +3.9% YoY; 2023: +3.6%) and upside risk to inflation rate (2024E: +2.4%; 5M 2024: +1.8% YoY; 2023: +2.5%), plus US Fed's "hold for longer" interest rate policy stance.
Maybank Ib預計，鑑於他們對GDP增長的預測上升（2024E：+4.7％；1Q2024：+3.9％YoY；2023：+3.6％）和通脹率的上行風險（2024E：+2.4％；500萬2024：+1.8% YoY；2023：+2.5％）以及聯儲局的“長揸”利率政策立場，OPR將在2024年保持在3.00％。
However, a stable OPR with the expected US interest rate cuts is positive for Ringgit's outlook amid recent stabilisation The latest Interest Rate Swap (IRS) rate implies market is pricing in a stable OPR next 12 months.
然而，在預期的美國利率削減下，穩定的OPR對馬來西亞林吉特的前景是積極的。最新的利率掉期（IRS）率表明市場預期未來12個月OPR穩定。
Ringgit stabilised, while strengthening requires US interest rate cuts and domestic reforms and restructuring
林吉特經歷了穩定，而加強需要美國利率削減以及國內改革和重組。
On the Ringgit, the latest MPS essentially maintained BNM's view that Ringgit current level does not reflect Malaysia's economic fundamentals and growth prospects i.e. being undervalued.
關於林吉特，最新的貨幣政策聲明基本上維持了BNM的觀點，即林吉特當前的水平沒有反映馬來西亞的經濟基本面和增長前景，即被低估。
Maybank IB analysts believe the Ringgit has stabilised against the USD to trade in a 4.68-4.72 range since mid-May 2024, and closed at 4.6875 on 11 July 2024 (source: Bloomberg), improving from this year's low of 4.80 on 20 Feb 2024.
Maybank Ib分析師認爲，林吉特自5月中旬以來已經穩定對美元交易在4.68-4.72範圍內交易，並於2024年7月11日收於4.6875（數據來源：彭博社），從2024年2月20日的最低點4.80開始改善。
This follows FX market intervention by BNM as indicated by the -USD2.1b drop in external reserves during Feb-Apr 2024 plus coordinated communications and actions by BNM (e.g. Governor's, Financial Market Committee (FMC) and Monetary Policy statements on 20/27 Feb 2024, 1 Mar 2024 and 7 Mar 2024 respectively) and Ministry of Finance (e.g. Second Finance Minister's statement in the Parliament on 29 Feb 2024) that include Ringgit-supporting measures, including encouraging Government-linked companies (GLCs) and Government-linked investment companies (GLICs) repatriating AND converting their foreign exchange earnings and overseas investment incomes.
這是由BNm在2024年2-4月期間干預外匯市場所指示的，加上由BNm（例如，行長，金融市場委員會（FMC）和貨幣政策聲明等）協調的溝通和行動，以及財政部（例如，在2024年2月29日的議會上的第二財政部長的聲明）包括支持林吉特的舉措，包括鼓勵與政府關聯的公司（GLC）和政府投資公司（GLIC）重返和轉換其外匯收入和海外投資收入。
Maybank IB's FX Research sees Ringgit ending this year vs USD at 4.60. Ringgit-positive factors include improving domestic economic growth prospect, as per the pickup in the 1Q 2024 real GDP growth to +4.2% YoY (4Q 2023: +2.9% YoY) that was among others driven by exports rebound (5M 2024: +4.5% YoY; 2023: -8.0% YoY), in line with the bank's forecasts of faster 2024 real GDP growth of +4.7% (2023: +3.6%) and full-year rebound in exports of goods and services (2024E: +5.5%; 2023: – 8.1%).
Maybank IB的外匯研究認爲，林吉特將在今年結束時以4.60對美元收盤。林吉特的積極因素包括實際GDP增長率的提高，如2024年第一季度實際GDP增長率的提高至+4.2％YoY（2023年第四季度：+2.9％YoY），其中一些歸功於出口的反彈（500萬2024：+4.5％YoY，2023：-8.0％YoY），符合銀行對更快2024實際GDP增長率+4.7％（2023：+3.6％）和商品和服務出口全年反彈（2024E：+5.5％；2023：-8.1％）的預測。
At the same time, the outlook on US interest rate matters
同時，對美國利率的展望也很重要
To recap, Ringgit strengthened to close at 4.59 at end-2023 vs the low of 4.79 on 23 Oct 2023 as markets priced US Fed cutting interest rate as soon as Mar 2024 and by as much as -150bps cuts back then. The outlook has since changed to -50bps cuts in the Fed funds rate later this year as per the latest 30-day fed funds futures.
回顧一下，隨着市場在2019年10月23日計價聯儲局削減利率的前景爲前途未卜，林吉特在當年年底上漲至4.59，而在2024年3月聯儲局預計一年內削減150點子的利率水平下上漲。而最新的30天聯邦基金期貨則預計今年晚些時候會進一步削減50個點子。
However, once the fog of uncertainty on US interest rate policy – in terms of timing and quantum – clears away, we expect Ringgit outlook to improve amid stable OPR and US fed funds rate cuts.
然而，一旦有關美國利率政策的不確定性煙霧散去，無論在時間和數量上，我們都預計林吉特前景會在穩定的OPR和聯儲局基金利率削減中得到改善。
Nonetheless, over the longer term, economic reforms and restructuring – as well as strategic economic growth policies – are vital for Ringgit outlook.
然而，在較長的時間範圍內，經濟改革和重組以及戰略性經濟增長政策對林吉特前景至關重要。
The MPS reiterated that "over the medium term, ongoing structural reforms will provide more enduring support to the Ringgit".
MPS重申：“從中期來看，持續的結構改革將爲林吉特提供更持久的支持。”
Maybank IB views the execution/implementation of fiscal reforms as the "low-hanging fruit" for a sustained Ringgit-positive/supportive outcome, especially given the legally binding target of reducing budget deficit to -3.0% of GDP (2024E: -4.3% of GDP; 2023: -5.0% of GDP) and capping Government total debt at no more than 60% of GDP (end-2023: 64.3% of GDP) in 3-5 years as per the Public Finance and Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) i.e. by 2026 at the earliest and by 2028 latest.
Maybank Ib認爲，財政改革的執行/實施是實現持續林吉特積極/支持性結果的“低離子流“，特別是考慮到根據公共財政和財政責任法案（FRA）以3-5年的時間將預算赤字降至GDP的-3.0％（2024E：-4.3％的GDP；2023：-5.0％的GDP）的法定目標和將政府總債務上限控制在不超過GDP的60％（2023年底：64.3％的GDP）內。即2026年至2018年最早和最晚之間。
To-date, Maybank IB said, the Government has rolled out revenue-enhancing broadening of the tax bases i.e. imposing Capital Gains Tax and 10% Low Value Goods Tax effective 1 Jan 2024; Services Tax base expansion and rate adjustment to 6%-8% range from 6% as well as "Sugar Tax" hike effective 1 Mar 2024. Further revenue-enhancement measures this year include strengthening tax compliance via the phasing in of "e-invoicing" starting 1 June 2024 for full implementation on 1 July 2025.
迄今爲止，馬來亞銀行表示政府已經實施了增加營業收入的稅收擴大基礎，即自2024年1月1日開始實施資本利得稅和10%的低價值商品稅;將服務稅基擴大並將稅率從6%調整到6%-8%的區間;以及自2024年3月1日起實施"糖稅"加息。今年的進一步增收措施包括通過從2024年6月1日起逐步實施"電子發票"來加強納稅合規性，完全實施時間爲2025年7月1日。
At the same time, the Government made further progress in subsidy rationalisation by rolling out the targeted diesel subsidy rationalization on 10 June 2024 after the implementation of targeted electricity subsidy and ending the subsidy for chicken production last year. We also expect the Government to complement FRA with the tabling of Government Procurement Act (GPA) in 4Q 2024.
同時，政府在去年結束了對雞肉生產的補貼之後，在2024年6月10日推出了有針對性的柴油補貼合理化，我們還期望政府在2024年第四季度提交政府採購法（GPA）以補充FRA。