Housing Prices Hit New All-Time Highs But Could Hit A Wall Soon, Despite Lower Mortgage Rates
Housing Prices Hit New All-Time Highs But Could Hit A Wall Soon, Despite Lower Mortgage Rates
U.S. housing prices just hit a new record high, with a median price of nearly $400,000, but price growth may stall out according to real estate company Redfin Corp (NASDAQ:RDFN).
美國房價剛剛創下歷史新高，中間價格接近40萬美元，但房地產公司Redfin Corp(NASDAQ:RDFN)表示價格增長可能會停止。
In a recent note, Redfin highlighted a 4.7% year-over-year growth in the median home price, the largest increase in more than 4 months.
The price growth of homes comes as mortgage rates have retreated from their highs in October 2023. With mortgage rates lowering, in addition to a market with historically low inventory, strong demand has pushed the average home price higher.
Despite mortgage rates coming down, mortgage-purchase applications are down 13% year-over-year, in a sign that high prices may be deterring would-be homebuyers. In fact, more homes are selling for less than the original asking price than at any point in the last four years.
在最近的一份報告中，Redfin強調了中位房價年增長4.7％，這是4個月以來最大的增長。
隨着抵押貸款利率從2023年10月的高點回落，房屋價格的增長就出現了。隨着抵押貸款利率的下降，再加上歷史低庫存市場，強勁的需求推高了平均房價。
儘管抵押貸款利率下降，購房申請卻同比下降了13％，這表明高房價可能會阻擋潛在買家。實際上，以低於原始要價出售的房屋比在過去四年的任何時候都要多。
"There are signs that price growth may lose momentum soon," the report reads. "The typical home is selling for 0.4% less than its asking price, marking the first time the typical home has sold under list price at the start of July since 2020."
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Redfin also points out that inventory is on the rise, potentially creating a plateau in the price growth of homes. And, if the Federal Reserve does end up cutting interest rates, it will help homebuilders borrow money to build more homes, thus increasing supply and potentially helping bring the price of homes lower.
"Although inventory is still historically low, it is rising on a year-over-year basis, which is another sign that price growth may lose steam in the coming months," Redfin's note says. "New listings are up 7.3% year over year, and the total number of homes for sale is up 18.3%, with most homes for sale growing stale: More than 60% of homes are listed for at least a month without going under contract."
報告中說：“有跡象表明價格增長可能會很快失去動力。典型住房的售價比要價低0.4％，標誌着自2020年7月開始以來，典型住房首次低於掛牌價。”
閱讀：房地產投資者瞄準這五個預算友好型城市的房屋記錄股份——是什麼使它們預算友好型的？
Redfin還指出，庫存正在增加，可能會製造房屋價格增長的停滯期。此外，如果聯邦儲備委員會最終降息，它將有助於住房建築商借款以建造更多房屋，從而增加供應並有可能幫助降低房屋價格。
Redfin的簡報說：“儘管庫存仍然處於歷史低位，但年增長率正在上升，這是價格增長在未來幾個月可能會失去動力的另一個跡象。新增房源同比上漲7.3％，總供應房屋數量同比上漲18.3％，其中大部分房屋供應乏力：超過60％的房屋至少掛牌1個月，但未達成交易。”
Price Action: If housing prices do fall, it could cut into the earnings of homebuilders like KB Home (NYSE:KBH) and Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL). But, companies that rely on the sales of homes, like Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z) could see an increase in business if lower prices encourage new buyers to enter the market.
股價走勢：如果房價下跌，可能會影響像Kb Home(NYSE:KBH)和Toll Brothers Inc(NYSE:TOL)等房屋建築商的收益。但是，像Zillow Group(NASDAQ:Z)這樣依賴於房屋銷售的公司，如果較低的價格鼓勵新買家進入市場，則可能會看到業務增長。
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