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1 Stock to Buy If the Bank of Canada Keeps Cutting Rates

1 Stock to Buy If the Bank of Canada Keeps Cutting Rates

如果加拿大銀行繼續降息,應該買入1支股票
The Motley Fool ·  07/15 15:30
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If the Bank of Canada keeps cutting interest rates, it will presumably be good news for most Canadians, financially speaking. Lower interest rates mean lower borrowing costs, and the bank cutting them would presumably mean that progress is being made in the fight against inflation.

如果加拿大銀行繼續降低利率,那對大多數加拿大人而言,從財務上來說,這顯然是好消息。利率降低意味着借款成本降低,銀行降低利率意味着在打擊通貨膨脹方面取得了進展。

For homeowners and other average Canadians, interest rate cuts would be a blessing. They would be a blessing for most stock investors, too; however, there are certain individual stocks that would suffer in a lower interest rate scenario. Many financials would report lower net interest income, for example. Certain types of stocks benefit from the capital cheapening/opportunity cost-lowering effects of interest rate cuts more than others. In this article, I will explore one TSX stock that would likely respond very positively to a fall in interest rates.

對於房主和其他一般加拿大人來說,降低利率是一件好事。股票投資者大多也會從降低利率中受益,然而,有些個別股票會在利率低的情況下受到影響。舉個例子,許多金融股票的淨利息收入較低。某些類型的股票在利率下降的情況下比其他股票更容易從資本便宜化/機會成本降低的影響中受益。本文將探討一隻tsx股票,該股票可能會對利率下降做出非常積極的反應。

Fortis

fortis

Fortis (TSX:FTS) is exactly the kind of stock you want to be holding in a scenario where the Bank of Canada continues cutting interest rates. As a regulated utility, it has a high level of debt, and all that debt becomes cheaper to service when rates go down. As a result, Fortis can reasonably be expected to deliver higher earnings if interest rates come down further. Its stock should also rise in the markets in the same scenario.

Fortis( TSX : FTS )恰好是你希望在加拿大銀行繼續降低利率的情況下持有的股票。作爲一家受監管的公用事業公司,其負債程度很高,當利率下降時,所有這些負債變得更容易維持。因此,如果利率進一步下降,可以合理地預計Fortis將提供更高的收益。在同一情況下,其股票價格也應該在市場上上漲。

Good revenue growth offset by high interest expense

高利息支出抵消良好的營業收入增長

Although Fortis's sales have increased considerably over the last five years, its stock has barely risen. This has occurred despite the company's revenue rising in the same period.

儘管Fortis的銷售額在過去五年大幅增加,但其股票幾乎沒有上漲。這種情況發生在公司的營業收入在同期增長的情況下。

One reason for this is that the company's admittedly growing revenue has been offset by rising interest expenses. Over the last five years, Fortis's revenues grew at 5.5% per year, but its finance charges (a category that includes interest and lease payments) grew at 6% per year. A consequence of this was that the company's earnings per share grew more slowly than revenue, at a 4% compounded rate. Some dilution (increase in the number of shares) also contributed to earnings lagging revenue.

其中一個原因是公司的營業收入增加的確抵消了不斷上升的利息支出。在過去的五年中,Fortis的營收以每年5.5%的速度增長,但其財務費用(包括利息和租賃付款在內的一類)以每年6%的速度增長。其結果是,該公司的每股收益增長速度比營收要慢,以4%的複合率增長。股票的股份也增加了一些,導致收益落後於營收。

The above partially explains Fortis's lacklustre stock performance over the last five years. However, it also points to a potentially better future. Because Fortis's earnings have taken a hit from rising interest expenses, said earnings should see an improvement from interest rate cuts. Falling interest rates result in an immediate reduction in the cost of variable rate debt and an eventual decrease in the cost of fixed rate debt, as it is eventually re-financed at a lower interest rate. Fortis will benefit from both of these effects if the Bank of Canada keeps cutting rates.

以上部分原因部分解釋了Fortis在過去五年中股票表現低迷的原因。然而,這也指向了一個有潛力的更好的未來。由於Fortis的收益受到不斷上升的利息支出的打擊,如果加拿大銀行繼續降息,這樣的收益應該會更好。利率下降會使可變利率債務成本立即降低,並最終降低固定利率債務成本,因爲到最後會以較低的利率再融資。如果加拿大銀行繼續降息,Fortis將從這兩種效應中受益。

A decent balance sheet

體面的資產負債表

Another big thing that Fortis has going for it right now is a good balance sheet. It has $27.5 billion in debt to $20.5 billion in common equity for a 1.35 debt-to-equity ratio. The ratio of debt to total equity is 1.15. These numbers are pretty modest for a utility stock. On a less flattering note, the company has more current liabilities than current assets for a sub-one current ratio. That isn't a positive, but the ratio (0.59) is not so bad that investors should fear immediate liquidity issues.

Fortis現在另一個很重要的優勢是一個良好的資產負債表。其債務爲275億美元,普通股權爲20.5億美元,債務與股本比率爲1.35。債務總額佔總股本比率爲1.15。這對於公用事業股票來說是相當適度的數字。說不到好聽的話,公司的流動負債超過了流動資產,呈現出不到一流的流動比率。但比率(0.59)還不至於讓投資者擔心立即的流動性問題。

Considerable dilution

相當大的稀釋

On a less positive note for Fortis, the company has diluted its equity considerably over the years, with the share count rising by 2.7% per year over the last five years. This isn't such a good thing, although earnings have grown faster than the share count, resulting in the already mentioned 4% growth rate in earnings per share. The earnings growth rate has more or less been adequate to support the company's dividend hikes. On the whole, Fortis appears to be a reasonably sensibly run company and a potential beneficiary of future rate cuts.

對於Fortis而言,另一個不是那麼積極的因素是,公司在過去的幾年中顯著稀釋了其股權,股份在過去五年中每年增長2.7%。雖然這不是一件好事,但收益增速超過了股份數量,導致了上面提到的每股收益增長率達4%。收益增長率或多或少已經足夠支撐公司的股息增長。總體而言,Fortis看起來是一家管理合理的公司,也是未來利率下降的潛在受益者。

The post 1 Stock to Buy if the Bank of Canada Keeps Cutting Rates appeared first on The Motley Fool Canada.

本文最初發表於 The Motley Fool Canada。

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