share_log

These 4 Measures Indicate That Shanghai Electric Power (SHSE:600021) Is Using Debt In A Risky Way

These 4 Measures Indicate That Shanghai Electric Power (SHSE:600021) Is Using Debt In A Risky Way

這4項措施表明上海電力(SHSE:600021)正在冒着風險使用債務。
Simply Wall St ·  07/15 18:57

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600021) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

傳奇基金經理李錄(米格爾的支持者)曾經說過,“最大的投資風險不是價格波動,而是您是否會遭受資本永久損失。” 當我們考慮一家公司有多大風險時,我們總是喜歡看它使用債務的情況,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。 我們注意到上海電力股份有限公司(SHSE:600021)的資產負債表上確實有債務。 但這筆債務是否令股東感到擔憂呢?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時有危險?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無力償還債權人,那麼就存在被債權人主宰的風險。 如果情況變得非常糟糕,債權人可以接管企業。 然而,更常見的(但仍然痛苦的)情況是其不得不以低價籌集新的股權資本,從而永久性地稀釋股東的股份。 當然,很多公司使用債務來資助增長,沒有任何消極後果。 在考慮企業使用多少債務時,首先要做的是將現金和債務放在一起看。

What Is Shanghai Electric Power's Debt?

上海電力的債務狀況是什麼?

As you can see below, Shanghai Electric Power had CN¥87.8b of debt at March 2024, down from CN¥102.3b a year prior. However, it does have CN¥8.65b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥79.2b.

正如下面所示,截至2024年3月,上海電力的債務總額爲878億元人民幣,低於一年前的1023億元人民幣。 但是,它確實擁有865億元人民幣的現金抵消這筆債務,因此淨債務約爲792億元人民幣。

big
SHSE:600021 Debt to Equity History July 15th 2024
SHSE:600021股權-負債歷史 2024年7月15日

A Look At Shanghai Electric Power's Liabilities

我們可以從最近的資產負債表中看出,截至一年內,上海電力共有470億元人民幣應在一年內償還的負債,744億元人民幣應在一年後償還的負債。抵銷這些負債,它持有價值254億元人民幣的應收賬款以及865億元人民幣的現金。因此,其負債總額比其現金和(短期)應收賬款多874億元人民幣。這種赤字嚴重影響這家275億元人民幣的公司,就像孩子揹着一堆書包,體育裝備和小號一樣。因此,毫無疑問,我們將關注其資產負債表。歸根結底,如果債權人要求償還,上海電力可能需要進行重大的再融資。

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Shanghai Electric Power had liabilities of CN¥47.0b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥74.4b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥8.65b as well as receivables valued at CN¥25.4b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥87.4b.

通過最近的資產負債表,我們可以看到上海電力必須償還470億元人民幣債務,並且還有744億元人民幣長期債務。 這些債務將被減少855億元人民幣的現金所抵消,且應收款項爲254億元人民幣(在12個月內到期),但其負債總額仍超過現金和(短期)應收賬款的874億元人民幣。這充分說明上海電力股份壓在肩上的財務負擔,就像孩子肩上負擔着一大堆書包,體育裝備和小號一樣沉重。

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥27.5b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Shanghai Electric Power would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

這裏的不足使這個275億元人民幣的公司感到很沉重,就像一個孩子扛着揹包(裏面裝滿了書),運動裝備和小號的重量一樣。 因此,毫無疑問,我們將密切關注其資產負債表。歸根結底,如果債權人要求還款,上海電力可能需要大規模再融資。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

爲了對公司的債務相對於其收益進行規模適應,我們計算其淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)之比及其稅前收益(EBIT)與利息支出之比(利息保障倍數)。因此,我們既考慮到不包括折舊和攤銷費用在內的收益,又包括折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對於債務。

With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.8, it's fair to say Shanghai Electric Power does have a significant amount of debt. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 3.5 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. On a slightly more positive note, Shanghai Electric Power grew its EBIT at 12% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Shanghai Electric Power can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

淨債務與EBITDA之比達到5.8,可以說上海電力股份的負債相當高。 但好消息是,它擁有相對舒適的每年EBIT的利息覆蓋率爲3.5倍,表明其可以負責任地服務其債務。稍微樂觀一些的是,上海電力股份去年EBIT增長了12%,進一步增強了其管理債務的能力。分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯然的起點。 但最終,企業未來的盈利能力將決定上海電力股份是否能夠隨着時間的推移增強其資產負債表。因此,如果您關注未來,可以查看這份免費報告,其中包含分析師的盈利預測。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Shanghai Electric Power burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最後,儘管政府很喜歡企業的會計利潤,債權人只接受冰冷的現金。 因此,我們始終要檢查EBIt的多少被轉化成了自由現金流。在過去的三年中,上海電力自負自己燒了很多錢。儘管投資者無疑期望這種情況會在不久的將來發生逆轉,但這顯然意味着他們使用債務的風險更大。

Our View

我們的觀點

On the face of it, Shanghai Electric Power's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Shanghai Electric Power has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Shanghai Electric Power (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

從表面上看,上海電力的EBIt轉自由現金流的情況讓我們對股票產生了猶豫不決的感覺,而其總負債的水平也不如全年最忙的那個夜晚只有一個空餐廳更具吸引力。但至少它在增加EBIT方面做得相當不錯,這是令人鼓舞的。在考慮了討論的數據後,我們認爲上海電力有太多的債務了。 儘管一些投資者喜歡這種冒險的玩法,但這絕不是我們的菜。 毋庸置疑,我們從資產負債表中學到了債務方面的大多數知識。 但歸根結底,每個公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。 爲此,您應該了解我們發現的兩種警告信號,其中包括使我們有些不舒服的信號。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容感到擔憂?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

對本文有反饋?對內容感到擔憂?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論