Malaysia 2H24 Outlook And Lookouts Of Sustaining Positive Economic Momentum
Malaysia 2H24 Outlook And Lookouts Of Sustaining Positive Economic Momentum
Malaysia's real GDP growth picked up in 1Q 2024, which had prompted Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) to raise the 2024E real GDP growth forecast to +4.7% (from +4.4%) and 2025E to +5.1% (from +5.0%).
2024年第一季度，馬來西亞實際國內生產總值增長加快，此舉促使馬來亞銀行投資銀行（Maybank IB）將2024年實際國內生產總值增長預測上調至+4.7%（從+4.4%），2025年預測值上調至+5.1%（從+5.0%） 。
Maybank IB said today, over at equities, core earnings of their research universe rose +20.1% YoY in 1Q 2024 which had led to upliftment in our forecasts; Maybank IB now estimates a higher +15.5% core earnings growth for their universe in 2024E (previously +13.1%), while for 2025E, they now estimate +10.7% growth (previously +9.9%).
Maybank Ib今日表示，其研究領域的核心盈利在 2024 年第一季度同比增長了 20.1%。這導致我們的預測有所提升。Maybank Ib現在預計，其研究領域在 2024 年將實現更高的 15.5% 核心盈利增長（之前是 13.1%），而在 2025 年，他們預計增長率將爲 10.7%（之前是 9.9%） 。
Malaysia's economic growth will be underpinned by the trifecta of positives:
馬來西亞的經濟增長將受到三個積極因素的支持：
1) investment upcycle in FDI and DDI reflecting the on-going realisation of the sustained momentum in robust approved investment since 2021;
1）在外商直接投資和國內直接投資方面，投資週期上升，反映了自 2021年以來批准的強勁投資動能的持久實現；
2) external demand recovery especially in electronics/tech and tourism, contributing to firmer services sector growth, pick up in manufacturing sector growth as well as rebound in exports of goods and services; and
2）外部需求的復甦，尤其是在電子/科技和旅遊業方面，有助於服務業增長走強，製造業增長回暖，貨物和服務出口增長加速；以及
3) resilient consumer spending on the back of the favourable job market conditions as per the low and stable unemployment rate as well as income growth and support measures.
3）在有利的就業市場條件下消費者支出保持強勢，這得益於低而穩定的失業率、收入增長和支持措施。
Maybank IB said, positively, the Ringgit has stabilised vs. USD following intervention by Bank Negara and coordinated communications and measures by Bank Negara and Ministry of Finance.
Maybank Ib表示，樂觀的是，馬幣對美元的匯率已經在馬來亞銀行的干預以及馬來亞銀行和財政部的協調溝通和措施後穩定。
Maybank IB forecasts the Ringgit ending this year vs. USD at 4.60.
Maybank Ib預計馬幣對美元匯率將以4.60收盤今年。
Ringgit-positive factors include improving domestic economic growth prospect, as well as the expectation of stable Overnight Policy Rate of 3.00% vs. market and Maybank IB's expectations of 2-3 cuts in the US federal funds rate between Sep 2024 and Dec 2024.
令人看好馬幣的因素包括國內經濟增長前景的改善，以及對 3.00% 的隔夜政策利率的預期穩定（相對於市場和 Maybank Ib 預計在 2024年9月和12月之間的聯儲局資金利率將有 2-3 次下調）。
For equities, the positive signs are:
對於股票，積極信號包括：
1) progress in economic restructuring and fiscal reforms;
1）經濟結構調整和財政改革的進展；
2) record high approved FDI/DDIs; and
2）創紀錄的批准外商直接投資/國內直接投資；以及
3) corporate earnings growth delivery has led to the KLCI's outperformance and re-rating in 2024 YTD.
3）企業盈利增長的交付，導致馬股在2024年的業績表現優異和被評級的提升。
Maybank IB maintains their YE KLCI target of 1,680, with tailwinds including:
Maybank Ib維持他們對吉隆坡綜合指數的年底目標爲1,680點，並受到三大利好因素的推動：
1) US interest rate cuts;
1）美國的利率下調；
2) details of the JSSEZ which will be catalytic in bringing in further FDIs and infra developments; and
2）吉隆坡分區戰略經濟特區的細節，這將有助於帶來更多的外商直接投資和基礎設施建設；以及
3) the outlook of a firmer Ringgit.
3）看盤鈔票更挺實的預期。
For investment strategy, Maybank IB recommends a portfolio of selective investment-related, and domestic sectors, balanced with yield stocks.
對於投資策略，Maybank Ib建議採用有選擇性的投資相關和國內行業，與收益股平衡。
Key wildcards to Malaysia's macro-outlook are the upside risk to domestic inflation and the downside risk of external geopolitics.
影響馬來西亞宏觀經濟前景的主要不確定因素是國內通脹風險的上行和外部地緣政治風險的下行。
Key risks for equities are US elections (in Nov 2024) and a "Trump 2.0" outcome, "higher-for-longer" US interest rate, and Russia-Ukraine & Middle East instability escalating.
股票的主要風險包括 2024年11月美國大選和 "特朗普 2.0" 的結果，"更高的美國利率"，以及俄羅斯-烏克蘭和中東不穩定局勢升級。