Is T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) A Risky Investment?
Is T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
作爲投資者,有些人認爲波動性而不是債務是思考風險的最佳途徑,但禾倫·巴菲特曾著名地說,「波動性遠非風險的同義詞」。當我們考慮一家公司有多大的風險時,我們總是希望看看它使用債務的情況,因爲債務超載會導致崩潰。重要的是,t-mobile us承擔債務。但是股東是否應該擔心它使用債務?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業成長的工具,但如果企業無力償還其貸款人,那麼企業就處於他們的威脅之下。如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能會一無所有。然而,更頻繁(但仍然代價昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低於市場價格的價格發行股票,從而永久稀釋股東權益,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,在資本密集型行業中,債務可能是一種重要的工具。當我們思考公司使用債務時,我們首先看現金和債務兩者之和。
What Is T-Mobile US's Net Debt?
t-Mobile US的淨債務是多少?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 T-Mobile US had debt of US$78.2b, up from US$74.7b in one year. On the flip side, it has US$6.71b in cash leading to net debt of about US$71.5b.
下面的圖片顯示,截至2024年3月,t-mobile us的債務爲782億美元,比一年前的747億美元增加了。另一方面,它有6710萬美元的現金,導致淨債務約爲715億美元。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240716/0-3786a725e92ed240e0a5166c9a391d68-0-3bb4f93815e92500bdb6e98aef978715.png/big)
How Healthy Is T-Mobile US' Balance Sheet?
t-Mobile US的資產負債表狀況如何?
According to the last reported balance sheet, T-Mobile US had liabilities of US$20.6b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$123.6b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$6.71b as well as receivables valued at US$8.76b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$128.7b.
根據最後一份報表,t-mobile us的負債包括206億美元的短期負債和1236億美元的長期負債。抵消這些負債,它有6710萬美元的現金以及8760萬美元的應收賬款,這些應收賬款在一年內到期。因此,它的負債超過了現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和1287億美元。
This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of US$211.0b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on T-Mobile US' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
與其相當巨大的市值2110億美元相比,這個虧損是相當大的,所以它確實表明股東應該關注t-Mobile US的債務使用情況。如果它的放貸人要求其加強資產負債表,股東可能會面臨嚴重的稀釋。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了對公司的債務相對於其收益進行規模適應,我們計算其淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)之比及其稅前收益(EBIT)與利息支出之比(利息保障倍數)。因此,我們既考慮到不包括折舊和攤銷費用在內的收益,又包括折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對於債務。
T-Mobile US has net debt worth 2.4 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 4.8 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. If T-Mobile US can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 17% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine T-Mobile US's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
t-Mobile US的淨債務相當於EBITDA的2.4倍,這並不是太多,但它的利息覆蓋率看起來有點低,EBIt只有利息費用的4.8倍。雖然這不會使我們太擔心,但它確實表明利息支出在某種程度上是負擔。如果t-Mobile US能夠保持去年17%的EBIt增長率,那麼它將發現自己更容易管理債務負擔。沒有什麼比從資產負債表中了解債務更重要的了。但最終,決定t-Mobile US能否保持健康的資產負債表去向的是未來的收入。因此,如果您想看看專業人士的看法,您可能會發現這份有關分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, T-Mobile US recorded free cash flow of 25% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
最後,一家企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤並不能解決問題。因此,合乎邏輯的方法是查看與實際自由現金流匹配的EBIt比例。在過去三年中,t-Mobile US的自由現金流佔其EBIt的25%,這比我們預期的要弱一些。在償還債務方面,這並不好。
Our View
我們的觀點
T-Mobile US's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But it seems to be able to grow its EBIT without much trouble. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that T-Mobile US is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 2 warning signs with T-Mobile US , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
t-Mobile US的EBIt轉爲自由現金流和總負債水平確實對我們產生了影響。但它似乎能夠輕鬆增長其EBIt。從上面提到的所有角度來看,我們認爲t-Mobile US作爲一家負債較高的公司,是一個有一定風險的投資。這並不一定是一件壞事,因爲槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但這是需要注意的事情。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。但最終,每個公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。我們已經確定了t-Mobile US的兩個預警信號,並理解它們應該是您投資過程中的一部分。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
歸根結底,專注於沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。您可以訪問我們的特別列表,其中包括所有表現出盈利增長軌跡的公司。這是免費的。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。