June Retail Sales Stagnate: Traders Fully Price In September Interest Rate Cut
June Retail Sales Stagnate: Traders Fully Price In September Interest Rate Cut
U.S. retail sales stagnated on a month-over-month basis in June 2024, declining from upwardly revised 0.3% growth in May to zero growth and matching the forecasted flat reading, according to preliminary estimates released Tuesday.
據週二發佈的初步估計，2024年6月美國零售銷售環比呈停滯狀態，同比5月修正後的增長0.3%下降至零增長，與預期持平。
Fed futures indicate a 100% likelihood of a rate cut in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Traders assign an 88% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 12% probability to a 50-basis-point rate cut.
芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具顯示，Fed期貨預示9月降息百分之百的概率。交易商將25個點子降息的概率賦值爲88％，50個點子降息的概率爲12％。
On Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish than anticipated, suggesting that recent inflation reports show welcome progress toward the 2% target, increasing confidence that policymakers may be inclined to lower interest rates.
週一，聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的表態傳遞出意外的鴿派信號，表示最近的通貨膨脹報告顯示了朝着2％目標的良好進展，增加了降息政策制定者可能會降息的信心。
Powell also mentioned that an unexpected weakening in the U.S. labor market could be a factor prompting the Fed to take action.
鮑威爾還提到，美國勞動力市場意外的疲軟可能是促使聯儲局採取行動的因素之一。
June Retail Sales Report: Key Highlights
6月零售銷售報告：主要亮點
- On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose by 2.3% in June, slowing from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May.
- Excluding motor vehicle and parts, retail sales increased by 0.4% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in May and topping the expected 0.1%, according to TradingEconomics data.
- Excluding gasoline, motor vehicle and parts, retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month in June, beating expectations of 0.2% growth and advancing from an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May.
- Among different spending categories, the largest monthly increases were seen in nonstore retailers, with a 1.9% rise, followed by building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers, up 1.4%.
- The largest monthly drops were seen in gasoline stations, down 3%, and motor vehicle and parts dealers, down 2%.
- 以同比基礎計算，6月零售銷售增長了2.3％，從5月上修的2.6％放緩。
- 據TradingEconomics數據，除汽車及配件外，零售銷售環比增長0.4％，高於5月份的0.1％並超出了預期的0.1％。
- 不計算汽油，汽車及其配件，6月零售銷售環比增長0.8％，超過0.2％增長的預期，並從5月的上修0.3％增長。
- 在不同的消費類別中，非實體零售商的月度增長最大，增長了1.9％，其次是建材，園藝設備和用品經銷商，增長1.4％。
- 最大的月度跌幅出現在汽油站，下降3％，汽車和配件經銷商下降2％。
Market Reactions: Dollar, Treasury Yields Slightly Rebound
市場反應：美元和國債收益率略有反彈。
Following the release of June retail sales data, the U.S. dollar strengthened and Treasury yields trimmed session losses.
6月零售銷售數據發佈後，美元走強，國債收益率削減了交易時段的損失。
The U.S. Dollar Index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), rose 0.2%.
美元指數在景順Db美元指數看多基金ET (NYSE:UUP)的跟蹤下上漲了0.2%。
Treasury yields were down by 3 basis points in the long end, with the 30-year yield hovering at 4.44%.
長端國債收益率下降了3個點子，30年期收益率保持在4.44％左右。
Futures on major U.S. averages traded higher during Tuesday premarket trading. Contracts on the S&P 500 were 0.4% higher by 8:40 a.m. ET.
週二盤前交易中，主要美國平均指數期貨走高。標普500指數合約於上午8:40 ( et )上漲了0.4％。
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圖片來自Shutterstock。