IOI Corp, Laggard Play With Possible Landbank Monetisation Option
IOI Corp, Laggard Play With Possible Landbank Monetisation Option
RHB Investment said although it expects FY24F to end the year flattish YoY for IOI Corporation, some improvement should be seen in FY25F as downstream earnings improve on global demand recovery. The house however said valuation remains attractive – at 18.6x 2024F P/E – which is at the low end of its peer range of 20-25x.
RhB Investment表示，儘管預計IOI Corporation在年底的同比將持平，但隨着全球需求的復甦，下游收益有所改善，FY25F 將有所改善。FY24F然而，該行表示，估值仍然具有吸引力——市盈率爲2024法郎的18.6倍——處於同行20-25倍區間的低端。
IOI Corp recorded a +5% YTDMay (11MFY24) FFB output growth, lower than its original FY24F growth target of +7% due to flooding in January in Sabah. Although the weather has normalised, IOI is now expecting FY24F and FY25F FFB growth to be around +5%. As this is in line with our projected 4-5% growth for FY24F-25F, RHB said it makes no changes to forecasts.
由於沙巴州1月份發生洪水，IOI Corp年初至5月（11MFY24）的FfB產出增長了5％，低於其最初設定的+ 7％的 FY24F 增長目標。儘管天氣已經恢復正常，但IOI現在預計 FY24F 和 FY25F FfB的增長率約爲+5％。由於這符合我們預計的 FY24F-25F 增長4-5％，因此RhB表示對預測沒有變化。
Production cost to remain flattish in FY25. 9MFY24 unit cost came in at MYR2,250/tonne, and the company expects FY24F cost to hover around the same level, translating to a 4% YoY reduction. IOI has secured its fertiliser requirements up to 1HFY25, at flattish prices YoY (vs FY24F fertiliser prices which were c.20-30% lower YoY) and is on track to achieve application target for FY24. As such, management also expects flattish CPO unit costs for FY25F. The house has adjust cost forecasts upwards slightly to reflect this.
25財年的生產成本將保持不變。9MFY24 的單位成本爲每噸2,250令吉，該公司預計 FY24F 成本將徘徊在同一水平上，這意味着同比下降4％。IOI 已確保其化肥需求達到 1HFY25，同比價格持平（而 FY24F 化肥價格同比下降約 20-30%），並有望實現24財年的申請目標。因此，管理層還預計，FY25F 的CPO單位成本將持平。衆議院略微上調了成本預測以反映這一點。
Downstream operations are slowly showing margin improvement QoQ, driven by positive performances from the refinery and oleochemical segments in 3Q24. Utilisation rates for its refineries are however, still low, at 50%, while oleochemical utilisation rates are around 60% in 9M24. Going forward, while IOI expects the refinery subsegment to still continue facing stiff competition from Indonesia, the oleochemical subsegment is improving as demand picks up, coming from restocking activities. As such, management expects margin to improve to 3- 5% in 4QFY24 from 2-3% in 3QFY24. RHB has said that it makes no changes to a more conservative margin assumptions of 1% for FY24F and 2-3% for FY25F-26F.
受煉油廠和油化板塊在24年第三季度表現積極的推動，下游業務環比利潤率緩慢提高。然而，其煉油廠的利用率仍然很低，爲50％，而油化利用率在24年上午約爲60％。展望未來，儘管IOI預計煉油廠子細分市場仍將面臨來自印度尼西亞的激烈競爭，但隨着需求的回升，來自補貨活動的回升，油化細分市場正在改善。因此，管理層預計，4QFY24 的利潤率將從 3QFY24 的2-3％提高到3-5％。RhB表示，它沒有改變更爲保守的利潤率假設，即 FY24F 的利潤率爲1％，FY25F-26F 的利潤率爲2-3％。
Potential landbank monetisation? As of now, IOI is evaluating potential landbank monetisation for some of its aged plantation land areas for renewable energy development. Currently, IOI has c.24k ha of plantation landbank in Johor and 19k ha in Pahang. Some land that could be suitable would include 2-3k ha in Tangkak, Johor and 1k ha in Pahang – where the company could potentially rent land as well as operate solar assets – either on its own or with a JV partner.
潛在的土地儲備貨幣化？到目前爲止，IOI正在評估其一些老化的種植用地的潛在土地儲備貨幣化，用於可再生能源開發。目前，IOI在柔佛州擁有約2.4萬公頃的種植園用地，在彭亨州擁有1.9萬公頃的種植園。一些可能合適的土地將包括柔佛州東甲的0.2-0.30萬公頃和彭亨州的0.1萬公頃——該公司有可能在那裏單獨或與合資夥伴一起租用土地並運營太陽能資產。
The house has maintained a Buy call with slightly lower SOP-based TP of MYR4.30 (from MYR4.40) and tweaks forecasts down slightly by 3-4% for FY25F-26F, after raising unit costs.
衆議院維持買入看漲期權，基於標準公開募股權的目標價略低至4.30令吉（低於4.40令吉），並在提高單位成本後，對 FY25F-26F 的預測小幅下調了3-4％。