Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drop Mortgage Rates To 4-Month Lows: Surge In New Applications, Refinance Demand
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drop Mortgage Rates To 4-Month Lows: Surge In New Applications, Refinance Demand
The anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is starting to have a favorable impact on the real estate mortgage market.
美國聯邦儲備委員會加息的預期開始對房地產抵押貸款市場產生了積極影響。
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased by 13 basis points to 6.87% for the week ending July 12, 2024, down from 7% the prior week, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association Wednesday.
根據週三房屋抵押貸款銀行家協會的報道，符合貸款平衡（貸款額度不超過766,550美元）的30年期固定利率抵押貸款的平均合同利率下降了13個點子，至6.87%，截至2024年7月12日的一週，較上一週的7%下降。
This decline represents the most significant drop in borrowing costs in around four months and the lowest rate since early March.
這次下降代表了近四個月以來借貸成本的最顯著下降，也是自3月初以來的最低利率。
Fed Rate Cut Bets, Lower Treasury Yields Push Mortgage Rates Down
聯邦基金利率下調預期和國債收益率下降推動抵押貸款利率下降。
The reduction was largely propelled by rising expectations on Fed rate cuts and the fall in 30-year Treasury yields, a key indicator for long-term mortgage rates, which decreased by approximately 30 basis points month-to-date to 4.37%.
長期抵押貸款利率的關鍵指標30年期國庫券收益率本月迄今已下降約30個點子至4.37%，這次降低主要受到聯邦基金利率下調預期和這種預期帶來的印象的推動。
Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have surged to nearly 100%, up from a 60% likelihood a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
根據CME FedWatch Tool的數據，市場預計9月份將降息25個點子的可能性已經飆升至將近100%，一個月前這個可能性還只有60%。
Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president, said, "Mortgage rates declined last week, as recent signs of cooling inflation and the increased likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year pulled them lower."
美國銀行家協會的副總裁喬爾·坎說：“抵押貸款利率上週下降，因爲最近通脹減緩的跡象和後年下半年聯邦基金利率降息的可能性增加，這些都使利率下降。”
Rising Mortgage Demand
抵押貸款利率下降13個點子對需求產生了積極影響，上週新抵押貸款和現有抵押貸款再融資的申請量大幅上升。
The 13 basis point reduction in mortgage rates has positively influenced demand, with applications for new mortgages and refinancing existing mortgages rising significantly last week.
根據美國銀行家協會的數據，美國的抵押貸款申請在7月的第三週躍升3.9%，從前兩週的下跌中恢復，並實現了一個月以來的最大增幅。
According to MBA data, mortgage applications in the U.S. jumped by 3.9% in the third week of July, recovering from declines in the previous two weeks to achieve the sharpest increase in a month.
尤其對每週利率變化敏感的抵押貸款再融資申請量與上週相比增加了15%，達到兩年來的最高水平。
Refinancing applications, which are particularly sensitive to weekly rate changes, increased by 15% from the previous week, reaching their highest level in two years.
房地產選擇行業SPDR基金（NYSE: XLRE）週三在發佈時交易上漲1.33%，週二收盤時上漲1%。Vanguard Real Estate ETF（NYSE: VNQ）上漲1.27%。
Market Reactions
市場反應
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) traded 1.33% higher at the time of publication Wednesday, after closing 1% higher Tuesday. The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:VNQ) was up 1.27%.
房地產業選擇板塊 SPDR 基金（紐交所：XLRE）週三發行時交易上漲了1.33％，週二收盤時上漲了1％。不動產信託指數ETF-Vanguard（紐交所：VNQ）上漲了1.27％。
Top performers in the premarket were:
早盤表現最佳的公司有：
- SL Green Realty Corp. (NYSE:SLG) up 2.30%.
- CubeSmart (NYSE:CUBE) up 1.90%.
- National Storage Affiliates Trust (NYSE:NSA) up 0.90%.
- Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:KW) up 0.56%.
- Alexandria Real Estate Equities (NYSE:ARE) up 0.54%.
- Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO) up 0.47%.
- SL Green Realty Corp.（紐約證券交易所股票代碼：SLG）上漲2.30%。
- CubeSmart（紐約證券交易所股票代碼：CUBE）上漲1.90%。
- National Storage Affiliates Trust（紐約證券交易所股票代碼：NSA）上漲0.90%。
- Kennedy-Wilson Holdings，Inc.（紐約證券交易所股票代碼：KW）上漲0.56%。
- Alexandria Real Estate Equities（紐約證券交易所股票代碼：ARE）上漲0.54%。
- Vornado Realty Trust（紐約證券交易所股票代碼：VNO）上漲0.47%。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock