Bank Of America Analysts Stick To December Rate Cut Prediction, Brace For Election-Fueled S&P 500 Turbulence
Bank Of America Analysts Stick To December Rate Cut Prediction, Brace For Election-Fueled S&P 500 Turbulence
Bank of America U.S. economist Michael Gapen maintains his forecast that the Federal Reserve will make its first rate cut in December, diverging from the wide majority of analysts and investors who are heavily betting on a September move.
美國銀行美國經濟學家邁克爾·加彭維持其對聯儲局將在12月首次降息的預測，這與大多數高度押注9月份的舉動的分析師和投資者不同。
During an event call on Wednesday organized by the investment bank, Gapen expressed that the U.S. economy is stabilizing, slowing, but not collapsing. The labor market remains robust, inflation is easing, and supply-side recovery keeps growth within potential.
在投資銀行週三組織的電話會議上，加彭表示，美國經濟正在穩定，放緩，但沒有崩潰。勞動力市場仍然強勁，通貨膨脹正在緩解，供應側復甦使增長保持在潛力範圍內。
"Disinflation has hit a speed bump in early 2024, but we think inflation will reach the 2% target in 2026," Gapen stated.
加彭說：“反通貨膨脹在2024年初達到了減速，但我們認爲通貨膨脹將在2026年達到2％的目標。”
Gapen anticipates the Fed to cut rates in December, followed by a pace of 25 basis points each quarter next year.
加彭預計，聯儲局將在12月降息，隨後明年每季度降息25個點子。
He mentioned that more evidence, particularly further labor market cooling and progress in inflation, is required to shift his view to a September rate cut. "We need to hear what the Fed thinks at the July meeting," he added.
他提到，要將他的觀點轉向9月份的降息，需要更多的證據，特別是勞動力市場的進一步降溫和通貨膨脹的進展。他補充說：“我們需要聽聽聯儲局在7月會議上的想法。”
Equity market outlook: Go value
股票市場展望：Go value
Analyst Savita Subramanian presented a cautiously optimistic outlook on the U.S. stock market, despite potential near-term volatility.
儘管短期內可能出現波動，但分析師薩維塔·蘇布拉曼尼安對美國股市表現出謹慎樂觀的前景。
Bank of America stuck with a year-end S&P 500 target of 5,400 points, indicating some downside from current levels but also highlighting opportunities in certain sectors.
美國銀行堅持將標準普爾500指數的年終目標定爲5,400點，這表明與當前水平相比有所下跌，但也凸顯了某些行業的機遇。
"Election uncertainty is significant," Subramanian noted. "We're entering a seasonally weak period marked by heightened policy uncertainty, which could lead to a pullback."
蘇布拉曼尼安指出：“選舉的不確定性很大。”“我們正在進入季節性疲軟時期，其特點是政策不確定性加劇，這可能導致回調。”
Subramanian remains confident in large-cap value stocks within cyclical sectors like energy, financials, and materials, despite a more conservative view on the overall index.
儘管對整體指數的看法更爲保守，但Subramanian對能源、金融和材料等週期性板塊中的大盤價值股票仍然充滿信心。
According to Subramanian, investors are overestimating the negative risks in the current economic environment and underestimating the probability of a period of relative economic stability. "The economy is likely to perform well over the next few years due to substantial fiscal stimulus, despite concerns about the deficit."
根據蘇布拉曼尼安的說法，投資者高估了當前經濟環境中的負面風險，低估了經濟相對穩定時期的可能性。“儘管對赤字感到擔憂，但由於大規模的財政刺激，未來幾年經濟可能會表現良好。”
Bank of America's U.S. regime indicator is currently in the "Recovery" phase, which supports value and risk. This phase typically aligns with stronger earnings growth.
美國銀行的美國製度指標目前處於 “復甦” 階段，這爲價值和風險提供了支持。這一階段通常與更強勁的收益增長相一致。
In 2023, the "Magnificent 7" companies, as tracked by the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NYSE:MAGS), posted strong earnings growth, while the rest of the S&P 500 experienced an earnings recession.
2023年，根據朗德希爾壯麗七號ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：MAGS）追蹤的 “壯麗7強” 公司公佈了強勁的收益增長，而標普500指數的其他公司則經歷了收益衰退。
The situation has flipped: the 'Other 493' companies in the S&P 500 are now exhibiting earnings growth, while mega-cap tech companies are starting to decelerate.
情況發生了變化：標準普爾500指數中的 “其他493家” 公司現在表現出收益增長，而大型科技公司則開始減速。
Read now:
立即閱讀：
- 'The Other 493' Set To Grow More Than 'Magnificent 7' This Earnings Season: Bank Of America
- 美國銀行：本業績期 “其他493人” 的增長幅度將超過'宏偉的7'
Image created with photos from Shutterstock and using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
使用來自 Shutterstock 的照片並通過 Midjourney 使用人工智能創建的圖片。