An Intrinsic Calculation For Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) Suggests It's 42% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) Suggests It's 42% Undervalued
Key Insights
主要見解
- The projected fair value for Dollar Tree is US$180 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Dollar Tree is estimated to be 42% undervalued based on current share price of US$105
- The US$137 analyst price target for DLTR is 24% less than our estimate of fair value
- 根據2階段自由現金流對股票的投資價值估值,美元樹公司的預計公平價值爲180美元。
- 根據當前的股價105美元,美元樹公司的估值被低估了42%。
- 分析師對美元樹公司的目標價爲137美元,比我們的公平價值估計低24%。
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
今天我們將介紹一種估值方法,該方法用於估算美元樹公司(NASDAQ:DLTR)作爲投資機會的吸引力,通過獲取公司未來的現金流預測值並將其打折回今天的價值。折現現金流量(DCF)模型是我們將應用於此的工具。在您認爲自己無法理解之前,只需要繼續閱讀!實際上,它比您想象的要簡單得多。
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
不過請記住,估算公司價值有很多方法,DCF只是其中一種。有興趣了解內在價值的人可以閱讀Simply Wall St分析模型,從中學習一些知識。
Crunching The Numbers
數據統計
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們使用2階段成長模型,這意味着我們考慮公司的兩個成長階段。在初始階段,該公司的增長率可能較高,而第二階段通常假定具有穩定的增長率。首先,我們必須獲得未來10年現金流的估計。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的估計,但在沒有可用估計時,我們會將以前的自由現金流(FCF)從最後一個估計或報告的價值中推導出來。我們假設自由現金流縮減的公司將減緩他們的縮減速度,並且自由現金流增長的公司在此期間將看到其增長率放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映增長在早期年份的減速比晚期年份更加明顯。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
普遍認爲今天的一美元比將來的一美元更有價值,因此我們需要貼現這些未來的現金流總和來得出現值估計:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由現金流 (FCF) 預估值
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$211.7m | US$758.9m | US$1.24b | US$1.44b | US$1.60b | US$1.74b | US$1.86b | US$1.97b | US$2.06b | US$2.14b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x3 | Est @ 15.55% | Est @ 11.60% | Est @ 8.83% | Est @ 6.90% | Est @ 5.54% | Est @ 4.59% | Est @ 3.93% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.5% | US$199 | US$670 | US$1.0k | US$1.1k | US$1.2k | US$1.2k | US$1.2k | US$1.2k | US$1.2k | US$1.1k |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
槓桿自由現金流 ($, 百萬) | 2.117億美元。 | 758.9美元 | 12.4億美元 | 21年自由現金流爲14.4億美元。 | 16.0億美元 | 17.4億美元 | 18.6億美元 | 19.7億美元 | 20.6億美元 | 21.4億美元 |
創業板增長率預測來源 | 分析師4人 | 分析師4人 | 分析師x3 | 預計 @ 15.55% | 預計 @ 11.60% | 預計 @ 8.83% | 預計 @ 6.90% | 估計爲5.54% | Est @ 4.59% | 3.93%的估值增長率 |
現值(百萬美元)以6.5%折現 | 美元199 | 6.70 | 1.0千美元 | 1.1千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.1千美元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$10b
("Est" = FCF增長率估計由Simply Wall St)
10年現金流量的現值(PVCF)= 100億美元
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.5%.
現在我們需要計算終端值,它考慮了這10年期後的所有未來現金流。出於許多原因,使用了一個非常保守的增長率,不能超過一個國家的GDP增長率。在這種情況下,我們使用了10年政府債券收益率的5年平均數(2.4%)來估計未來增長。與10年“增長”期一樣,我們使用資本成本率爲6.5%折現未來的現金流到今天的價值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.1b× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (6.5%– 2.4%) = US$54b
終止價值(TV)=自由現金流 ×(1 + g)÷(r-g)=21億美元×(1 + 2.4%)÷(6.5%– 2.4%)= 540億美元
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$54b÷ ( 1 + 6.5%)10= US$29b
終止價值現值(PVTV)= TV /(1 + r)10 = 540億美元÷(1 + 6.5%)10 = 290億美元
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$39b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$105, the company appears quite undervalued at a 42% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
總價值是未來十年現金流的總和加上折現的終止價值,從而得出總權益價值,本例中爲390億美元。最後一步是將權益價值除以流通股數。與當前股價105美元相比,公司似乎被低估了42%。任何計算中的假設都會對估值產生很大的影響,因此最好視其爲粗略的估計,而不是精確到最後一分錢。
![big](https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240718/0-7666ff13d293dccf47ec28d4bfb591ce-0-49e92700c8155a23199835860fd11a3f.png/big)
The Assumptions
假設
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dollar Tree as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.887. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
儘管重要,DCF計算不應是您仔細分析公司的唯一工具。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。最好還要應用不同的情形和假設,看看它們如何影響公司的估值。例如,公司的權益成本或無風險利率的變化可能會對估值產生重大影響。爲什麼股價低於內在價值?對於美元樹公司,有三個重要方面值得您關注:
Next Steps:
下一步:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Dollar Tree, there are three important aspects you should look at:
未來收益:DLTR的增長率與同行業和市場整體水平相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表交互,深入了解未來數年的分析師共識數字。
- Financial Health: Does DLTR have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does DLTR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 財務健康狀況:DLTR的資產負債表狀況如何?查看我們的免費資產負債表分析,了解關鍵因素的六個簡單檢查,如槓桿和風險。
- 未來收益:DLTR的增長率如何與同行和更廣泛的市場相比?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表交互,深入了解未來幾年的分析師共識數字。
- 其他優秀企業:低負債,高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是構建強大企業基礎的基礎。爲什麼不探索我們交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有堅實業務基礎的其他公司?
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都會更新其對每隻美國股票的折現現金流計算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的內在價值,只需在此搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有反饋?對內容感到擔憂?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有反饋?對內容感到擔憂?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。