We believe investing is smart because history shows that stock markets go higher in the long term. But not every stock you buy will perform as well as the overall market. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:TCBI) share price is up 15% in the last year, that falls short of the market return. Looking back further, the share price is 13% higher than it was three years ago.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year, Texas Capital Bancshares actually saw its earnings per share drop 47%.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

Texas Capital Bancshares' revenue actually dropped 17% over last year. So using a snapshot of key business metrics doesn't give us a good picture of why the market is bidding up the stock.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. You can see what analysts are predicting for Texas Capital Bancshares in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

Texas Capital Bancshares shareholders are up 15% for the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 3% over half a decade This suggests the company might be improving over time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Texas Capital Bancshares , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Texas Capital Bancshares is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find lesser know companies this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com