BofA Downgrades Elevance Health On Medicaid Pressure And Lowered Peer Valuations
BofA Downgrades Elevance Health On Medicaid Pressure And Lowered Peer Valuations
Wednesday, Elevance Health Inc. (NYSE:ELV) reported second-quarter revenues of $43.2 billion, down 0.4% year-over-year, marginally above the consensus of $43.05 billion.
週三，Elevance Health Inc.（紐交所：ELV）報告了第二季度收入爲432億美元，同比下降0.4%，略高於市場預期的430.5億美元。
The decrease was driven by attrition in Medicaid membership, partially offset by higher premium yields reflecting the medical cost trend.
減少的原因是由於 Medicaid 會員流失，部分抵消了醫療成本趨勢的更高保費收益。
In the second quarter, UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) and Elevance Health reported increasing pressure on Medicaid, creating uncertainty about when Medicaid margins will bottom out and when a potential recovery might occur.
在第二季度，聯合健康集團股份有限公司（紐交所：UNH）和 Elevance Health 報告了對 Medicaid 的持續壓力，這給何時 Medicaid 邊際利潤率會觸底以及潛在復甦何時出現帶來了不確定性。
Centene Inc. (NYSE:CNC), Cigna Corp (NYSE:CI), and Molina Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:MOH) are trading at a 3x lower valuation than Elevance Health. While Elevance Health's diversification and quality justify some premium, this also limits its potential for further gains.
康西哥股份有限公司（紐交所：CNC）、錫格納公司（紐交所：CI）和摩利納保健公司（紐交所：MOH）的估值比 Elevance Health 低了 3 倍。儘管 Elevance Health 的多樣化和質量可以證明其價值超出其他公司，但這也限制了其進一步的增長潛力。
BofA Securities observes that Elevance Health has traditionally been seen as an investment lacking Medicare Advantage (MA) exposure. However, this perception may change following UnitedHealth's stronger-than-expected results and a potentially improving regulatory landscape.
美銀證券觀察到，Elevance Health 之前一直被視爲一項缺乏醫療優勢的投資。然而，隨着聯合健康的業績超過預期和監管環境的逐步改善，這種看法可能會改變。
BofA has lowered the price target from $646 to $530 and downgraded Elevance Health to Neutral from Buy.
美銀證券將 Elevance Health 的目標價下調至530美元，從買入評級下調至中性評級。
The potential for insufficient rates (to cover a worsening risk pool) has been a concern since the suspension redeterminations (four years ago) started. BofA analysts downgraded Medicaid-focused names earlier this year.
自四年前開始暫停重新評估以來，由於保障高風險人群的費率有可能不足，一直是一個擔憂點。美銀證券分析師今年早些時候下調了 Medicaid 重點關注企業的評級。
However, companies have long argued that states know risk pool shifts and that rates would proactively reflect the sicker population. Even though many companies built in some margin mean reversion into the 2024 guide, the margin pressure is still higher than expected.
然而，許多公司長期以來一直堅稱，各州知曉風險池的變化，費率將會主動反映病情更重的人群。儘管許多公司將一些利潤均值回歸納入了 2024 年的指南中，但利潤壓力仍高於預期。
The analyst writes, "Ultimately, we believe rates will reflect acuity over time, but the fact that ELV also called out underlying utilization accelerating as a separate dynamic, while hospitals are talking about Medicaid volume acceleration, raises the likelihood that pressures could continue into 2025."
分析師寫道：“最終，我們認爲費率將隨着時間推移反映病情嚴重程度，但 ELV 也指出基礎利用率加速是一個獨立的動態因素，而醫院則在談論 Medicaid 成交量的加速，這提高了持續壓力將持續到2025年的可能性。”
Other analyst reactions:
其他分析師反應如下：
- RBC Capital maintains Elevance Health with an Outperform and raises the price target from $575 to $585.
- Barclays maintains Elevance Health with an Overweight and lowers the price target from $621 to $611.
- RBC 資本保持對 Elevance Health 的推薦並將目標價從575美元上調至585美元。
- 巴克萊銀行保持對 Elevance Health 的超重評級，並將目標價從621美元下調至611美元。
Price Action: ELV stock is down 2.7% at $506.85 at last check Thursday.
股票價格：週四最後檢查，ELV 股價下跌 2.7%，報 506.85 美元。
Image via Shutterstock
圖片來自shutterstock。
- UnitedHealth Reports 'Noisy' Quarterly Results: 5 Analysts Weigh In On 'Compelling Levers Of Improvement' For 2025.
- 聯合健康報告“嘈雜”的季度業績：5位分析師權衡 2025 年的“具有吸引力的改善槓桿”。