With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.4x China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601601) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios greater than 28x and even P/E's higher than 52x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.
While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, China Pacific Insurance (Group)'s earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
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Is There Any Growth For China Pacific Insurance (Group)?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like China Pacific Insurance (Group)'s to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 43%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 9.3% overall rise in EPS. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 9.7% per year during the coming three years according to the twelve analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 24% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that China Pacific Insurance (Group)'s P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.
What We Can Learn From China Pacific Insurance (Group)'s P/E?
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that China Pacific Insurance (Group) maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - China Pacific Insurance (Group) has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Pacific Insurance (Group), explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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