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3SBio (HKG:1530) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 48% If They Invested Five Years Ago

3SBio (HKG:1530) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 48% If They Invested Five Years Ago

如果五年前在3SBio (HKG:1530)投資,投資者現在面臨着48%的虧損。
Simply Wall St ·  07/19 20:06

3SBio Inc. (HKG:1530) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 18% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. You would have done a lot better buying an index fund, since the stock has dropped 50% in that half decade.

3SBio Inc.(HKG:1530)的股東應該很高興看到上個季度股價上漲了18%。但這並不改變過去5年的回報率令人不滿意的事實。如果在過去的5年中購買指數基金,你會做得更好,因爲該股在這個半十年裏下跌了50%。

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

值得評估公司的經濟狀況是否與這些不盡如人意的股東回報同時發展並步調一致,或者兩者之間是否存在差異。因此,讓我們來看看。

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

用本傑明·格雷厄姆的話來說:“短期市場是一臺投票機,但長期市場是一臺稱重機”。檢查市場情緒如何隨時間推移變化的一種方式是查看公司股價和每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。

While the share price declined over five years, 3SBio actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 5.5% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

雖然股價在五年內下跌,但3SBio每年實際上成功增長了5.5%的每股收益。因此,似乎EPS並不是了解市場如何估值該股票的好指南。另一方面,過去的增長預期可能不合理。

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

由於EPS增長率與股價增長率之間的明顯對比,我們傾向於尋找其他指標以了解股票周圍變化的市場情緒。

Revenue is actually up 10.0% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

營業收入實際上在此期間上升了10.0%。更詳細的收入和收益審查可能會或可能不會解釋爲什麼股價停滯不前;這可能是機會。

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

你可以在下面的圖片中看到收入和營業收入隨時間的變化情況(單擊圖表可查看精確值)。

big
SEHK:1530 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 20th 2024
SEHK:1530自2024年7月20日以來的收益和營收增長

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

資產負債表強度至關重要。查看我們關於其財務狀況如何隨時間變化的免費報告可能很值得一看。

What About Dividends?

那麼分紅怎麼樣呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, 3SBio's TSR for the last 5 years was -48%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

除了衡量股價回報率之外,投資者也應考慮總股東回報率(TSR)。股價回報率僅反映股價的變化,而TSR包括股息的價值(假設它們被再投資)和任何折價的資本籌資或分拆的好處。可以說,TSR提供了一種更全面的股票圖像,適用於支付股息的股票。事實上,過去5年3SBio的TSR爲-48%,超過先前提到的股價回報率。沒有什麼獎勵可比猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種差異!

A Different Perspective

不同的觀點

Investors in 3SBio had a tough year, with a total loss of 11% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 5.8%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 8% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for 3SBio you should know about.

3SBio的投資者經歷了艱難的一年,總損失爲11%(包括股息),而市場則增長了約5.8%。但是,請記住,即使是最好的股票有時也會在12個月的時間內表現不佳。不幸的是,長期股東在過去5年中遭受了更嚴重的損失,損失了8%。除非有明確的信息表明該公司將增長,否則我們不會認爲股價將穩定下來。我覺得長期視角下的股價是企業業績的代表非常有趣。但要真正獲得深入的洞察,我們需要考慮其他信息。例如,考慮風險。每個公司都有風險,我們已經發現3SBio的1個警告信號,你應該知道。

Of course 3SBio may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

當然,3SBio可能不是最好的股票可供購買。因此,您可能希望查看這個免費的成長股收藏。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了當前在香港證券交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容感到擔憂?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

對本文有反饋?對內容感到擔憂?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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