Black-Swan Investor Says 'Greatest Bubble In Human History' Is On The Verge Of Bursting, Calls Stocks 'Mega-Tinderbox-Time Bomb'
Black-Swan Investor Says 'Greatest Bubble In Human History' Is On The Verge Of Bursting, Calls Stocks 'Mega-Tinderbox-Time Bomb'
The stock market is on the brink of a historic sell-off, according to renowned black-swan investor Mark Spitznagel. He has issued a stark warning about the potential collapse of the "greatest bubble in human history."
著名黑天鵝投資者馬克·斯皮茨納格爾表示，股市正處於歷史性拋售的邊緣。他對 “人類歷史上最大的泡沫” 可能崩潰發出了嚴厲警告。
What Happened: Spitznagel, known for his successful bets on market-moving "black swan" events, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, reiterated his bearish outlook on the stock market. He compared the ongoing market rally to the dot-com bubble of the late 90s, which ended in a significant crash in 2000.
發生了什麼：斯皮茨納格爾以成功押注影響市場的 “黑天鵝” 事件而聞名，他在週五接受《華爾街日報》採訪時重申了對股市的看跌前景。他將持續的市場反彈與90年代末的互聯網泡沫進行了比較，後者在2000年以重大暴跌告終。
"You don't feel like a fool for making a bearish argument."
“你不會因爲提出看跌的論點而覺得自己像個傻瓜。”
The current bubble's burst could have more severe consequences due to the U.S. government's $34 trillion debt, he said, comparing the current market situation to a "mega-tinderbox-time bomb." This debt, he believes, would hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to prevent a recession in time.
他說，由於美國政府的34萬億美元債務，當前泡沫的破裂可能會產生更嚴重的後果，他將當前的市場狀況比作 “巨型火箱定時炸彈”。他認爲，這筆債務將阻礙聯儲局及時防止衰退的能力。
"I think we're on the way to something really, really bad — but of course I'd say that."
“我認爲我們正在走向非常糟糕的事情——但我當然會這麼說。”
Why It Matters: Spitznagel, whose Universa Investments fund profited heavily from the 2008 market crash, the 2015 flash crash, and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, has been cautioning about a potential crash since January 2023. He now believes that the timeline for the impending crisis is clearer, and a recession could be looming by year-end.
爲何重要：斯皮茨納格爾自2023年1月以來一直在警告可能出現暴跌，他的環球投資基金從2008年的市場暴跌、2015年的暴跌以及 COVID-19 疫情的爆發中獲利豐厚。他現在認爲，即將到來的危機的時間表更加明確，衰退可能在年底前迫在眉睫。
Spitznagel's warning adds to a growing chorus of voices predicting a market crash. In June, economist Harry Dent predicted an "everything" bubble that could surpass the severity of the Great Recession. Similarly, in July, economist John Higgins suggested that a Trump presidency could trigger an early burst of the AI stock rally.
Spitznagel的警告加劇了越來越多的預測市場崩潰的聲音。6月，經濟學家哈里·登特預測，“一切” 的泡沫可能會超過大蕭條的嚴重程度。同樣，經濟學家約翰·希金斯在7月表示，特朗普當選總統可能會引發人工智能股票的早期漲勢。
Despite these warnings, some experts see the potential market crash as a buying opportunity. Chief Investment Officer Richard Bernstein suggested that the most expensive stocks in the market are likely overvalued and could be heading for a correction, presenting a significant buying opportunity for other areas of the market.
儘管有這些警告，但一些專家仍將潛在的市場崩盤視爲買入機會。首席投資官理查德·伯恩斯坦表示，市場上最昂貴的股票可能被高估並可能走向修正，這爲市場的其他領域提供了重要的買入機會。
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This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
該內容部分是在Benzinga Neuro的幫助下製作的，並由Benzinga編輯審查和出版。
Photo courtesy: Wikimedia
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