Are we back in a 'Trump trade' world? The US Presidential election is still four months away, but the relatively dramatic events of the past week mean markets are pricing in a high chance of a Trump victory. For investors, this means balancing the impact of proposed Trump policies of higher tariffs and spending – which are arguably pro-growth, but also inflationary – with major market drivers that include disappointing economic data, likely Fed rate cuts and near-term pullback risks.
Nevertheless, Standard Chartered in its investment editorial said it sees these divergences creating opportunities. SC added it would take advantage of short-term sectoral rotation within US equities and improving Japan market technicals. In bonds, the banking group said it believes the Fed will ultimately drive bond yields lower, adding some urgency to taking advantage of still-high yields.
Advantage Trump: Betting markets predict high chances of a win for Trump in November's US presidential election, a lead that surged after last weekend's assassination attempt. In financial markets, this triggered a revival of the 'Trump trade' narrative.
Sectors like energy posted gains on deregulation expectations even as technology fell amid tariffs concerns. Beyond equities, the USD weakened (albeit within recent ranges). While it has been argued that Trump's proposed policies should result in higher US bond yields, soft economic data and Fed rate cut expectations have thus far continued to push yields lower.
Macro and market fundamentals – the real drivers: The banking group believes the macro and markets environment has lent a significant helping hand to 'Trump trades'. Fed Chair Powell's rising comfort in signalling rate cuts in the second half of this year was supported by the Fed's Beige Book, that showed slowing activity and inflation regionally, and slowing inflation in prior weeks. US economic surprises also remain negative.
However, over the past week, retail sales, industrial production and housing starts surprised on the upside, suggesting US economic disappointments may be bottoming.
The sector rotation opportunity: US equities face stretched investor positioning, with its own proprietary indicator pointing to a two-thirds chance of a short-term pullback. However, much of this excessive optimism appears concentrated in the technology sector.
Over a short (1-3 month) horizon, it is likely the focus temporarily shifts to sectors like energy and financials (and even small caps). These sectors are potential beneficiaries of Trump's proposed tariff, spending and deregulation policy proposals, but they also stand to benefit from a correction in investor positioning.
USD/JPY fall to extend, improving Japan equity technicals: USD/JPY fell around 3% over the past week in a suspected policy intervention move. While history suggests intervention alone is unlikely to create a lasting currency move, for now the house sees a negative bias for USD/JPY with resistance at 157.60. The currency move has improved the near-term technical outlook for Japan equities, creating a regional rotation opportunity at a time when US markets face short-term reversal risks.
A narrowing window to lock in yields: While Trump's proposed policies are largely viewed as inflationary, we continue to expect bond yields to be driven by near-term Fed rate cut expectations. Recent data and policymaker comments supports the view the Fed will start cutting rates in H2 24, likely in September. This means investors face a narrowing window to lock in today's attractive yields before short- and long-term yields move significantly lower.
我們回到 “特朗普貿易” 世界了嗎?距離美國總統大選還有四個月的時間,但過去一週發生的相對戲劇性的事件意味着市場認爲特朗普獲勝的可能性很大。對於投資者而言,這意味着要平衡特朗普提議的提高關稅和支出政策的影響(可以說是促增長,但也有通貨膨脹)和主要市場驅動因素,包括令人失望的經濟數據、聯儲局可能的降息和短期回調風險。
儘管如此,渣打銀行在其投資社論中表示,它認爲這些分歧創造了機會。SC補充說,它將利用美國股市的短期行業輪動和日本市場技術面改善。在債券方面,該銀行集團表示,它相信聯儲局最終將降低債券收益率,這增加了利用仍然很高的收益率的緊迫性。
特朗普的優勢:博彩市場預測特朗普在11月的美國總統大選中獲勝的可能性很高,在上週末的暗殺企圖之後,這一領先優勢激增。在金融市場,這引發了 “特朗普貿易” 敘事的復興。
儘管由於關稅擔憂,科技股下跌,但能源等行業仍因放松管制的預期而上漲。除股票外,美元走弱(儘管在最近的區間內)。儘管有人認爲特朗普提出的政策應該會提高美國國債收益率,但疲軟的經濟數據和聯儲局的降息預期迄今爲止繼續推動收益率走低。
宏觀和市場基本面——真正的驅動力:該銀行集團認爲,宏觀和市場環境爲 “特朗普交易” 提供了重要的幫助。聯儲局主席鮑威爾對今年下半年發出降息信號越來越滿意,這得到了聯儲局褐皮書的支持,該報告顯示,該地區活動和通貨膨脹放緩,前幾周通脹放緩。美國的經濟意外也仍然是負面的。
但是,在過去的一週中,零售銷售、工業生產和房屋開工出人意料地出現了上行趨勢,這表明美國的經濟失望情緒可能正在觸底。
行業輪動機會:美國股市面臨緊張的投資者定位,其自己的專有指標表明短期回調的可能性爲三分之二。但是,這種過度樂觀情緒在很大程度上似乎集中在科技領域。
在短期(1-3個月)的時間內,焦點可能會暫時轉移到能源和金融(甚至小盤股)等行業。這些行業是特朗普提議的關稅、支出和放松管制政策提案的潛在受益者,但它們也將受益於投資者定位的調整。
美元/日元繼續下跌,日本股市技術面改善:美元/日元在過去一週因可疑的政策干預舉措而下跌約3%。儘管歷史表明,光靠干預不太可能造成持續的貨幣走勢,但就目前而言,衆議院認爲美元/日元存在負面偏見,阻力位在157.60。貨幣走勢改善了日本股市的短期技術前景,在美國市場面臨短期逆轉風險之際創造了區域輪換機會。
鎖定收益率的窗口正在縮小:儘管特朗普提出的政策在很大程度上被視爲通貨膨脹,但我們仍然預計債券收益率將受到聯儲局短期降息預期的推動。最近的數據和決策者的評論支持了聯儲局將在24年下半年(可能在9月)開始降息的觀點。這意味着在短期和長期收益率大幅下降之前,投資者鎖定當今誘人的收益率的窗口正在縮小。