Is Loncin Motor (SHSE:603766) A Risky Investment?
Is Loncin Motor (SHSE:603766) A Risky Investment?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Loncin Motor Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603766) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
霍華德·馬克斯說得很好,與其擔心股價波動,「我擔心的是永久性損失的可能性……我認識的每個實踐投資者都會擔心這個問題。」當我們思考一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過重可能會導致破產。我們注意到隆鑫通用(SHSE:60376)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但是真正的問題是,這些債務是否讓公司變得有風險。
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但如果企業無力償還債務,那麼它就在債權人的掌控下。在最壞的情況下,如果無法償還債權人,公司可能會破產。然而,更常見(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東權益,來增強其資產負債表。當然,許多公司使用債務來資助業務增長,沒有任何負面後果。考慮企業使用多少債務時,首要要做的是將其現金和債務結合在一起。
How Much Debt Does Loncin Motor Carry?
隆鑫通用的負債有多大?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Loncin Motor had CN¥303.6m of debt in March 2024, down from CN¥677.1m, one year before. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥5.62b in cash, so it actually has CN¥5.32b net cash.
您可以點擊下面的圖表查看歷史數字,但它顯示隆鑫通用在2024年3月有3.036億元的債務,比一年前的6.771億元減少。然而,其資產負債表顯示其持有56.2億的現金,因此其淨現金爲53.2億。
A Look At Loncin Motor's Liabilities
看看隆鑫通用的負債
According to the last reported balance sheet, Loncin Motor had liabilities of CN¥4.99b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥292.5m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥5.62b in cash and CN¥1.98b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥2.31b more liquid assets than total liabilities.
根據最後報告的資產負債表,隆鑫通用有CN¥49.9億的負債到期在12個月內,有CN¥29250萬的負債到12個月以上。與此相抵消的是,它擁有56.2億的現金和19.8億的應收賬款,在12個月內到期。因此,它可以吹噓比總負債多23.1億的流動資產。
It's good to see that Loncin Motor has plenty of liquidity on its balance sheet, suggesting conservative management of liabilities. Due to its strong net asset position, it is not likely to face issues with its lenders. Simply put, the fact that Loncin Motor has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.
很高興看到隆鑫通用的資產負債表上有足夠的流動性,表明負債的管理非常審慎。由於其強大的淨資產,它不可能遇到與貸款人的問題。簡單地說,隆鑫通用擁有比債務更多的現金可能意味着它可以安全地管理其債務。
In addition to that, we're happy to report that Loncin Motor has boosted its EBIT by 70%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Loncin Motor will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
此外,我們很高興地報告,隆鑫通用將其稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBIt)提高了70%,從而減少了未來償債的風險。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯然的起點。但是你不能完全孤立地看待債務,因爲隆鑫通用將需要盈利來償還債務。因此,在考慮債務時,肯定值得看一下收入趨勢。請點擊這裏查看交互式快照。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Loncin Motor has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Happily for any shareholders, Loncin Motor actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
最後,雖然財務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,而貸款人只接受現金。雖然隆鑫通用在其資產負債表上擁有淨現金,但查看其將稅息前利潤(EBIT)轉化爲自由現金流的能力仍然值得一看,以幫助我們了解其積累(或侵蝕)現金的速度。令股東感到高興的是,隆鑫通用在過去三年中實際上產生了比EBIt更多的自由現金流。這種強勁的現金轉化讓我們感到倍受期待,就像聽到Daft Punk音樂會上音樂打擊的人群一樣。
Summing Up
總之
While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Loncin Motor has CN¥5.32b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. The cherry on top was that in converted 134% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥1.3b. When it comes to Loncin Motor's debt, we sufficiently relaxed that our mind turns to the jacuzzi. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Loncin Motor you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.
雖然調查公司的負債水平總是明智的,但在這種情況下,隆鑫通用擁有5.32億元的淨現金和一張看起來不錯的資產負債表。最後,它將134%的EBIt轉化爲自由現金流,帶來了13億元。當涉及隆鑫通用的債務時,我們感到非常放鬆,以至於我們的想象力開始膨脹。資產負債表顯然是分析負債的重點區域。但是,歸根結底,每家公司都可能存在平衡表之外的風險。實際情況是:我們發現了隆鑫通用的三個警告標誌,您應該注意其中1個有些令人擔憂。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
說到底,有時候更容易集中精力關注根本不需要債務的公司。讀者可以免費訪問零淨債務增長股票列表。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。