The regional oil and gas sector was anticipated to remain robust, with expectations of stable oil prices, according to a report by RHB Investment Bank (RHB).
The bank maintained its OVERWEIGHT rating for the sector, citing a favourable outlook for upstream exposure and international diversification. The bank's top picks included Dialog and Dayang Enterprise (DEHB) in Malaysia, PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP) in Thailand, and Elnusa (ELSA) in Indonesia.
RHB's forecast for Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged at USD88, USD83, and USD80 per barrel for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The positive economic recovery momentum in key markets such as the US, China, and selected ASEAN economies supported this outlook. OPEC+ compliance was good at 105% in June 2024, with the cartel producing 5% less than required, leading to a theoretical supply deficit of 0.9mbpd in 2024F and 0.3mbpd in 2025F.
In Malaysia, RHB highlighted potential capex cuts by Petronas due to Petronas taking over the buying and selling of natural gas in Sarawak. Starting in the second half of 2024, this transition might impact Petronas's earnings and its ability to spend, despite commitments to pay sizeable dividends to the Federal Government. However, RHB expected a resolution that would not jeopardise existing productions or future domestic investments.
For Indonesia and Thailand, RHB expected higher oil prices of USD90 per barrel in the second half of 2024. ELSA was well-positioned amidst rising exploration activity in Indonesia and higher petroleum demand, with an undemanding valuation of 0.7x P/BV and a decent ROE and earnings growth. PTTEP remained the preferred pick in Thailand, with a strong medium-term outlook and a projected 5% CAGR in sales volume from 2024 to 2028.
RHB's recommendation for investors was clear: consider stocks with upstream exposure and international diversification, particularly Dialog, Dayang Enterprise, PTTEP, and Elnusa. These companies were well-positioned to benefit from the stable oil prices and growing global demand for oil and gas.
根據RHB Investment Bank (RHB)的一份報告，由於預期油價將保持穩定，該地區的石油和天然氣行業預計將繼續保持強勁發展勢頭。
該銀行維持該行業的增持評級，理由是上游風險敞口和國際多元化前景樂觀。該銀行的首選包括馬來西亞的Dialog和Dayang Enterprise（DEHB）、泰國的PtT勘探與生產（PTTEP）和印度尼西亞的Elnusa（ELSA）。
RHB對布倫特原油價格的預測在2024年、2025年和2026年分別維持在每桶 USD88、USD83 和 USD80 不變。美國、中國和部分東盟經濟體等主要市場的積極經濟復甦勢頭支持了這一前景。2024年6月，歐佩克+的合規率爲105％，該卡特爾的產量比要求低5％，導致2024財年理論供應赤字爲0.9百萬桶/日，2025財年爲0.3百萬桶/日。
在馬來西亞，RhB強調了國油可能削減資本支出，因爲國油接管了砂拉越天然氣的買入和賣出。儘管承諾向聯邦政府支付可觀的股息，但從2024年下半年開始，這種過渡可能會影響國油的收益及其支出能力。但是，RhB預計一項不會危及現有生產或未來國內投資的決議。
對於印度尼西亞和泰國，盧旺達央行預計，2024年下半年油價將上漲至每桶 USD90。在印度尼西亞勘探活動不斷增加和石油需求增加的情況下，ELSA處於有利地位，估值不高，市盈率爲0.7倍，投資回報率和收益增長良好。PTTEP仍然是泰國的首選，其中期前景強勁，預計從2024年到2028年，銷售量的複合年增長率爲5％。
興業銀行對投資者的建議很明確：考慮具有上游風險敞口和國際分散投資的股票，尤其是Dialog、大洋企業、PTTEP和Elnusa。這些公司完全有能力從穩定的油價和不斷增長的全球石油和天然氣需求中受益。
