Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) just released its latest second-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 9.8% to hit US$3.1b. Southern Copper reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$1.22, which was a notable 10% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, Southern Copper's 15 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$11.2b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 6.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 15% to US$4.06. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.01 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$93.86. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Southern Copper, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$137 and the most bearish at US$54.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Southern Copper's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Southern Copper to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Southern Copper going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Southern Copper is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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