Investors Anticipate Unraveling Of 'Trump Trade' As Biden Exits Presidential Race, But Analyst Says 'It's A Bit Too Early For The Markets To Declare Victory For Trump'
Investors Anticipate Unraveling Of 'Trump Trade' As Biden Exits Presidential Race, But Analyst Says 'It's A Bit Too Early For The Markets To Declare Victory For Trump'
The 2024 presidential race has taken a dramatic turn with President Joe Biden's decision to step down, leading to potential changes in market strategies known as the 'Trump trade'.
隨着喬·拜登總統下臺的決定,2024年的總統大選發生了戲劇性的轉變,這導致了被稱爲 “特朗普交易” 的市場策略的潛在變化。
What Happened: Biden's withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris have stirred speculation about the future of the "Trump trade," CNBC reported on Monday. This term refers to market strategies banking on stocks that would likely benefit from a potential return of former President Donald Trump to the White House.
發生了什麼:CNBC週一報道,拜登的退出和對副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯的支持激起了人們對 “特朗普交易” 未來的猜測。該術語是指以股票爲基礎的市場策略,這些股票可能會受益於前總統唐納德·特朗普可能重返白宮。
Previously, markets had factored in another term for the Republican challenger, following Biden's concerning debate performance and an assassination attempt on Trump. However, Biden's withdrawal has introduced a new level of uncertainty into the election, causing traders to reassess their positions.
此前,繼拜登令人擔憂的辯論表現和對特朗普的暗殺企圖之後,市場曾考慮過共和黨挑戰者的另一個任期。但是,拜登的退出給選舉帶來了新的不確定性,導致交易者重新評估他們的立場。
Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Australia-based broker Pepperstone, predicts that the U.S. dollar would soften as the "Trump trade" unwinds. He added that Biden's exit has increased the prospect of a Democratic victory marginally.
總部位於澳大利亞的經紀商Pepperstone的高級研究策略師邁克爾·布朗預測,隨着 “特朗普交易” 的結束,美元將走軟。他補充說,拜登的退出略微增加了民主黨獲勝的可能性。
Brown anticipates that stocks may decline in the short term, but views any drops as medium-term buying opportunities. This outlook is supported by the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates, alongside resilient economic and earnings growth.
布朗預計股票可能在短期內下跌,但將任何下跌視爲中期買入機會。這一前景得到了聯儲局將降息以及彈性的經濟和收益增長的預期的支持。
Charles Myers, founder and CEO of advisory firm Signum Global Policy, also added that the "Trump trade" is at risk in the short term, adding that Harris will give a befitting competition to Trump.
諮詢公司Signum Global Policy的創始人兼首席執行官查爾斯·邁爾斯也補充說,“特朗普的交易” 在短期內處於危險之中,並補充說,哈里斯將與特朗普進行恰當的競爭。
"I think that it's a bit too early for the markets to declare victory for Trump, and I think she's going to give him a real run for his money," Myers said.
邁爾斯說:“我認爲現在市場宣佈特朗普獲勝還爲時過早,我認爲她會讓他真正爭取他的錢。”
Why It Matters: The decision, though not entirely unforeseen, has ignited the stock market. Recent polls had shown a widening lead for Trump over Biden, following a lackluster debate performance, a failed assassination attempt on Trump, and the Republican convention.
爲何重要:這一決定雖然並非完全不可預見,但卻點燃了股市。最近的民意調查顯示,在辯論表現乏善可陳、企圖暗殺特朗普失敗以及共和黨代表大會之後,特朗普對拜登的領先優勢不斷擴大。
Renowned economist Mohamed El-Erian expressed that opinions are likely to vary on how the news will influence U.S. stock futures. Some may perceive this as an indication of greater policy uncertainty post the November elections, while others might believe that the markets have already factored in the news.
著名經濟學家穆罕默德·埃裏安表示,關於這一消息將如何影響美國股票期貨,看法可能會有所不同。一些人可能認爲這表明11月大選後政策不確定性增加,而另一些人則可能認爲市場已經將這一消息考慮在內。
Meanwhile, a snap poll conducted shortly after Biden's announcement showed a majority of Americans approved of the decision. The survey showed that 71% percent of the Americans surveyed said they either strongly approved or somewhat approved of Biden's withdrawal.
同時,拜登宣佈後不久進行的一項快速民意調查顯示,大多數美國人贊成這一決定。調查顯示,71%的受訪美國人表示,他們強烈支持或在某種程度上贊成拜登的退出。