Is Xiamen C&D (SHSE:600153) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Xiamen C&D (SHSE:600153) Using Too Much Debt?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Xiamen C&D Inc. (SHSE:600153) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
伯克希爾哈撒韋公司的Charlie Munger支持的外部基金經理Li Lu毫不掩飾地說:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受資本的永久損失。」 因此,明智的投資者知道債務(通常與破產有關)是衡量公司風險的一個非常重要的因素。重要的是,廈門建發股份有限公司(SHSE:600153)確實有債務。但真正的問題是這些債務是否會使公司變得風險更高。
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務帶來了什麼風險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
債務是幫助企業成長的工具,但如果企業無法償還債權人,那麼它就會處於債權人的控制下。如果公司無法滿足償還債務的法律義務,股東可能會一無所有。然而,更頻繁的(但仍然代價高昂)情況是,公司必須以低於市場價的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東的權益,以維持其資產負債表。儘管如此,最常見的情況是公司合理地管理其債務 - 並以自己的利益爲基礎。當我們考慮公司的債務使用時,首先將現金和債務放在一起。
What Is Xiamen C&D's Debt?
廈門建發的債務是什麼?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 Xiamen C&D had debt of CN¥184.7b, up from CN¥151.4b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥104.0b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥80.8b.
以下圖像顯示了廈門建發在2024年3月的債務達到了1847億,高於一年前的1514億。然而,由於其有1040億現金儲備,其淨債務較少,約爲808億。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240724/0-a12867ef19d76ce4ce9bffef706ca1d5-0-2ab23ac4f410deded020c1d510dd6451.png/big)
How Healthy Is Xiamen C&D's Balance Sheet?
廈門建發的資產負債表健康狀況如何?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Xiamen C&D had liabilities of CN¥519.9b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥144.2b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥104.0b as well as receivables valued at CN¥100.2b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥459.9b.
根據最近披露的資產負債表,廈門建發的12個月內到期的負債爲5199億人民幣,超過12個月到期的負債爲1442億人民幣。抵銷這些債務的是它有1040億人民幣現金存款以及1002億人民幣的應收賬款。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和4599億元人民幣。這個缺陷使得這家235億元人民幣的公司非常吃力,就像一個孩子揹着一大堆書,運動裝備和小號一樣。因此,我們毫不懷疑會密切關注其資產負債表。歸根結底,如果其債權人要求償還,廈門建發可能需要進行大規模的再資本化。
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥23.5b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Xiamen C&D would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
恰好廈門建發的淨債務/ EBITDA比率爲5.9但利息覆蓋率非常強,爲11.5。這意味着,除非該公司能夠獲得非常便宜的債務,否則利息支出將可能在未來增長。廈門建發在去年的EBIt增長6.3%。雖然遠非不可思議,但在償還債務方面還是一件好事。當你分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是要關注的領域。但最重要的是未來的收入,這將決定廈門建發在未來能否保持健康的資產負債表。因此,如果您想知道專業人士的看法,您可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告有趣。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
BJ批發俱樂部控股公司的淨債務只有EBITDA的0.62倍。而其EBIT輕鬆覆蓋其利息費用,比例爲12.6倍。因此,我們對其超級保守的債務使用感到相當放心。雖然BJ批發俱樂部控股公司在EBIT方面沒有取得太多進展,但至少其盈利保持穩定。當分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯然的切入點。但歸根結底,企業未來的盈利能力將決定BJ批發俱樂部控股公司能否隨着時間的推移加強資產負債表。因此,如果你要關注未來,可以查看一下這份免費的分析報告,了解分析師的盈利預測。
As it happens Xiamen C&D has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.9 but very strong interest coverage of 11.5. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Xiamen C&D grew its EBIT by 6.3% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Xiamen C&D's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
最後,在還債時,一家公司需要有自由現金流;會計利潤並不能解決問題。因此,檢查有多少EBIt由自由現金流支持是值得的。在過去三年中,廈門建發記錄下了高達85%的EBIt的自由現金流,這比我們通常期望的要強。如果需要的話,這使它有能力償還債務。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Xiamen C&D recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 85% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
雖然廈門建發的總負債水平讓我們感到緊張,但它對股本收益與利息覆蓋的轉換讓我們對其管理債務的能力有些信心。當我們考慮所有討論的因素時,我們認爲廈門建發在使用債務時存在一些風險。雖然債務可以提高收益,但我們認爲公司現在已經具有足夠的槓桿作用。當你分析債務時,負債表顯然是要關注的領域。但最終,每個公司都可能存在超出負債表範圍之外的風險。因此,你應該了解我們發現的廈門建發的3個警告信號(包括1個我們不太滿意的)。
Our View
我們的觀點
While Xiamen C&D's level of total liabilities has us nervous. For example, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and interest cover give us some confidence in its ability to manage its debt. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Xiamen C&D is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Xiamen C&D (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
廈門建發的總負債水平讓我們感到緊張。雖然債務可以提高收益,但我們認爲公司現在已經具有足夠的槓桿作用。當你分析債務時,負債表顯然是要關注的領域。但是,最終,每個公司都可能存在負債表之外的風險。因此,你應該學習一下我們發現的廈門建發的3個警告信號(包括1個我們不太滿意的)。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。