China Jul EV Sales Preview: Deutsche Bank Expects Nio at 21,000 Units, Xpeng 10,000, BYD 300,000
China Jul EV Sales Preview: Deutsche Bank Expects Nio at 21,000 Units, Xpeng 10,000, BYD 300,000
Deutsche Bank also expects Tesla to sell 45,000 units at retail in China in July, Li Auto at 48,000 units and Zeekr at 15,000 units.
德意志銀行還預計特斯拉在7月份在中國的零售銷量爲45,000輛，理想汽車爲48,000輛，而Zeekr則爲15,000輛。
Deutsche Bank expects Nio (NYSE: NIO) to continue to deliver more than 20,000 units in July, which would put it on track to exceed that mark for the third straight month.
德意志銀行預計Nio（紐交所：NIO）在7月份將繼續交付超過20,000輛，這將使其連續第三個月超越這一數字。
In a research note sent to investors today, analyst Wang Bin's team shared their July delivery forecasts for major new energy vehicle (NEV) makers, saying it won't be easy to achieve sequential growth.
分析師王斌的團隊在今天給投資者發的一份研究報告中分享了對幾大新能源廠商7月份交付的預測，稱實現環比增長並不容易。
Specifically, the team expects Nio to retail 21,000 units in July, flat year-on-year and flat sequentially.
具體而言，該團隊預計Nio在7月份零售21,000輛，同比持平，環比持平。
"NIO domestic retail sales totaled 13.3k units in the past three weeks of July, and we estimate NIO's full-month July delivery volume at ~21k units (flat YoY and flat MoM)," the team said.
“ NIO在7月前三週的國內零售銷量累計達到13,300輛，我們估計NIO的7月份全月交付量約爲2.1萬輛（同比持平，環比持平）。”該團隊表示。
Nio's new order flow is forecast to be around 22,000 units as its promotional efforts in the first 20 days of July are in line with its June policy, the team said.
該團隊表示，Nio的新訂單數量預計約爲22,000輛，因爲其在7月前20天的促銷活動與其6月的政策相符。
However, Nio declared a RMB 5,000 ($690) reduction in promotion for the ES6 and EC6 and a RMB 3,000 reduction for the ET5 and ET5 Touring from July 22, the team noted.
然而，該團隊指出，Nio自7月22日起宣佈推出ES6和EC6的RMb 5,000（690美元）的促銷和ET5和ET5 Touring的RMb 3,000（408美元）的促銷。
This brought a meaningful spike in new orders before the promotion reduction, the team said.
該團隊表示，此舉在促銷減少之前帶來了新訂單的明顯增加。
Nio delivered 21,209 vehicles in June, surpassing its previous record of 20,544 in May to set a new high.
Nio在6月份交付了21,209輛車，超過了5月份20,544輛的創紀錄交付量。
Wang's team expects Xpeng to retail 10,000 units in July, down 6 percent sequentially and down 9 percent year-on-year.
王的團隊預計小鵬汽車7月份零售10,000輛，環比下降6％，同比下降9％。
Xpeng's domestic retail sales in July are estimated at 8,500 units and overseas deliveries are estimated at 1,500 units, according to the team.
該團隊表示，根據其內部數據，小鵬汽車7月份的國內零售銷量估計爲8,500輛，海外交付量估計爲1,500輛。
In the first three weeks of July, Xpeng's domestic retail sales totaled 5,400 units, the team said, adding that Xpeng offered more discounts to car buyers in July amid tough market conditions.
該團隊表示，在7月份的強市環境下，小鵬汽車向汽車買家提供更多折扣。7月份，汽車買家必須在現金補貼和汽車金融利率補貼之間進行選擇。
Earlier, in June, car buyers had to choose between a cash subsidy and a car finance interest rate subsidy. The company has started offering both cash subsidy and 0 percent interest car finance in the same amount as in June.
該公司已經開始同時提供現金補貼和0％利率汽車金融，金額與6月份相同。
As a result, Xpeng offered subsidies ranging from RMB 15,000 to RMB 20,000 per unit for the P7i and RMB 15,000 per unit for the P5, G6 and G9, the team noted.
因此，小鵬汽車提供的補貼金額從15,000元到20,000元不等，單台P7i爲15,000元，P5，G6和G9爲15,000元/台，該團隊指出。
Xpeng doesn't have a large backlog of orders on hand at the moment, so the number of new orders is very similar to its deliveries, the team said, adding that all the products in its portfolio only have to wait 1-2 weeks to get the car.
該團隊表示，小鵬汽車目前沒有大量積壓的訂單，因此新訂單的數量非常接近其交付量。該公司產品組合中的所有產品都只需要等待1-2周即可得到汽車。
Wang's team expects Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) to retail 48,000 units in July, slightly below the company's target of 50,000 units, up 41 percent year-on-year and flat sequentially.
王斌的團隊預計理想汽車（納斯達克：LI）在7月份零售48，000輛，略低於該公司的目標50，000輛，年增長41％，環比持平。
Li Auto's domestic retail sales totaled 30,000 units in the first three weeks of July, the team said, adding that the company's new order flow is estimated to be around 46,000 units.
該團隊表示，理想汽車在7月份的國內零售銷售額在前三週累計達到30,000輛，該公司的新訂單流量預計約爲46,000輛。
The team expects Tesla to retail 45,000 units in China in July, up 37 percent year-on-year while down 23 percent sequentially.
該團隊預計特斯拉在7月份在中國零售銷量爲45,000輛，同比增長37％，環比下降23％。
Tesla China's domestic retail sales in the first three weeks of July totaled 28,400 units, and its new order flow is expected to be 40,000-50,000 units, according to the team.
特斯拉中國在7月前三週的國內零售銷售額達到28,400輛，新訂單流量預計爲40,000-50,000輛。
BYD's July retail sales are expected to be 300,000 units, up 8.5 percent sequentially and up 41 percent year-on-year, Wang's team said.
王的團隊表示，比亞迪7月份零售銷售額預計爲30萬台，環比增長8.5％，同比增長41％。
BYD's domestic retail sales totaled 194,000 units in the first three weeks of July, and based on dealer feedback, it has a pretty good flow of new orders in July, which are expected to exceed 300,000 units, the team said.
比亞迪7月前三週的國內零售銷量達到了19.4萬台，在經銷商的反饋基礎上，預計7月新訂單流量非常好，預計將超過30萬台。該團隊表示。
Deutsche Bank expects Zeekr (NYSE: ZK) to retail 15,000 units in July, up 25 percent year-on-year while down 25 percent sequentially.
德意志銀行預計Zeekr（紐交所：ZK）7月零售銷量爲1.5萬台，同比增長25%，環比下降25%。
Zeekr's domestic retail sales totaled 10,200 units in the first three weeks of July, and it has new orders estimated at about 15,000 units in July, the team said.
Zeekr在7月前三週的國內零售銷量爲10200台，預計7月新訂單約15000台，該團隊表示。
Leapmotor's retail volume in July is estimated at 21,000 units, up 46 percent year-on-year and up 4 percent sequentially.
Leapmotor在7月的零售銷量預計爲21,000台，同比增長46%，環比增長4%。
Its domestic retail sales totaled 13,100 units in the first three weeks of July, and the C16 has received more than 10,000 orders since its June 28 launch, the team noted.
C16自6月28日發佈以來，國內零售銷售額已經超過13,100輛，團隊指出，自發布以來已經收到了超過10,000個訂單。
Huawei-backed Aito's retail volume in July is estimated at 43,000 units, up about 865 percent year-on-year and flat from June.
華爲支持的Aito在7月的零售銷量預計爲43,000輛，同比增長約865%，環比持平。
Domestic retail sales for the Aito brand totaled 27,000 units in the first three weeks of July, with new order flow estimated at around 25,000 units, according to the team.
Aito品牌的國內零售總銷量在7月前三週已經達到了27,000輛，新訂單流量預計約爲25,000輛，據該團隊稱。
It's worth noting that Aito's order backlog at the end of June was about 75,000 units, with about 20,000 of the M7 Ultra, 40,000 of the M9, and 15,000 of the M5, which will support 43,000 monthly deliveries in July, the team said.
值得注意的是，Aito在6月底的訂單積壓量約爲75,000輛，其中M7 Ultra約20,000輛，M9約40,000輛，M5約15,000輛，這將支持7月43,000輛的月交付量，團隊稱。
($1 = RMB 7.2756)
（1美元 = 7.2756人民幣）
China EV insurance registrations for week ending Jul 21: Nio 4,600, Tesla 10,500, Xiaomi 1,500, BYD 66,700
中國電動汽車保險業7月21日一週登記：蔚來4,600，特斯拉10,500，小米1,500，比亞迪66,700。