GDP Q2 Preview: 5 ETFs To Monitor Thursday As Economic Data Unfolds
GDP Q2 Preview: 5 ETFs To Monitor Thursday As Economic Data Unfolds
Investors are eagerly awaiting this Thursday's release of advance estimates for the second quarter's gross domestic product (GDP) by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 a.m. ET.
投資者們正在熱切期待於週四早上8:30發佈的第二季度國內生產總值（GDP）的初步估計報告。
In the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, a significant slowdown compared to the 3.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. This deceleration was accompanied by a temporary spike in inflation, with the GDP price index jumping to 3.1% in the first quarter, raising fears of stagflation.
在2024年第一季度，美國經濟以年化1.4%的速度增長，相比於2023年第四季度的3.4%增長顯著減緩。這種減速伴隨着通貨膨脹的暫時飆升，一季度GDP價格指數升至3.1%，引發了滯脹的擔憂。
Besides the second quarter GDP data, investors will closely monitor the weekly jobless claims, expected to ease from 243,000 to 238,000, and June's durable goods orders, projected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month.
除了第二季度的GDP數據，投資者們還將密切關注預計從24.3萬人減至23.8萬人的每週失業救濟金申領情況，以及預計環比增長0.2%的6月耐用品訂單。
Investors currently assign 100% odds to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
據芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具顯示，投資者們目前已將於9月的聯邦利率削減賦予了100%的概率。
Economist Forecasts for Q2 2024 GDP
2024年第二季度GDP經濟學家預測
- Q2 GDP growth: The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2% quarter-over-quarter annualized in the second quarter, up from 1.4% in the first quarter.
- GDP price index: Forecasted to decrease from 3.1% in the first quarter to 2.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a cooling of inflationary pressures.
- Core GDP price index: Expected to drop from 3.7% in the first quarter to 2.7% in the second quarter, excluding volatile energy and food prices.
- Q2 GDP增長：第二季度美國經濟預計以環比年化2%增長，高於第一季度1.4%。
- GDP價格指數：預計第二季度將從第一季度的3.1%下降至2.6%，反映通貨膨脹壓力的緩解。
- 核心GDP價格指數：預計第二季度將從第一季度的3.7%下降至2.7%，不包括能源和食品價格的波動。
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Tracker Points To 2.7% Growth
亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行GDPNow追蹤器指向2.7%的增長
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has raised its second-quarter real GDP growth forecast to 2.7%, according to its latest update, continuing an upward trend from a low of 1.55% on July 3.
根據亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的GDPNow模型最新更新，第二季度實際GDP增長預測已經上升至2.7%，這是從7月3日的1.55%低點開始的一個上升趨勢。
Consumer spending is expected to add 1.5 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth in the second quarter, up from 1.0pp in the first quarter.
消費支出預計在第二季度爲GDP增長增加1.5個百分點，高於第一季度的1個百分點。
Non-residential fixed investments are forecasted to contribute 0.75pp. Private inventories are projected to add 0.95pp, while government spending adds 0.42pp.
非住宅固定投資預計將貢獻0.75個百分點。私人庫存預計將增加0.95個百分點，而政府支出則增加0.42個百分點。
5 ETFs To Monitor Thursday
5個值得關注的ETF
The advance estimates on the first-quarter GDP, released on April 25, 2024, impacted growth-sensitive stocks and safe-haven assets. Key movements included:
4月25日發佈的第一季度GDP初步估計影響了增長敏感型股票和避險資產的走勢。關鍵變化包括：
- The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) fell 0.9%.
- The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) dropped 0.6%.
- The Financials SPDR Select Sector Fund (NYSE:XLF) decreased 0.6%.
- The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) rose 0.5%.
- The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) increased 0.7%.
- SPDR道瓊斯工業平均ETF（NYSE:DIA）下跌0.9%。
- iShares羅素2000指數ETF（NYSE:IWM）下跌0.6%。
- 金融SPDR選擇性部門基金（NYSE:XLF）下跌0.6%。
- 納斯達克的iShares 20+年期國庫券ETF（NASDAQ:TLT）上漲0.5%。
- SPDR金etf（NYSE:GLD）上漲0.7%。
Based on previous market reactions, a lower-than-expected GDP reading could lead to a weakening in growth-linked stocks and sectors, with investors gravitating towards safer assets like Treasuries and gold.
根據以往市場反應，如果GDP數據低於預期，則可能導致成長型股票和板塊的疲弱，投資者會轉向國債和黃金等安全資產。
Conversely, stronger-than-expected GDP figures might boost the U.S. dollar, especially if also the price index surpasses expectations.
相反，超過預期的GDP數據可能會推動美元走強，特別是如果價格指數也超過預期。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock