If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. Long term ShanDongDenghai Seeds Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002041) shareholders know that all too well, since the share price is down considerably over three years. Sadly for them, the share price is down 53% in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 51%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 19% in the last three months.

Since ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd has shed CN¥484m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 24% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

The modest 0.5% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 16% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. You can see what analysts are predicting for ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd shareholders are down 51% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 19%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 1.0% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with ShanDongDenghai SeedsLtd , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com