Is Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (SHSE:600196) A Risky Investment?
Is Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (SHSE:600196) A Risky Investment?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600196) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
David Iben說得很好,“波動性不是我們關心的風險,我們關心的是避免資本永久損失。”當您考慮一家公司的風險時,考慮其資產負債表是很自然的事情,因爲債務在業務崩潰時往往是必然存在的。我們注意到上海復星醫藥(集團)股份有限公司(上海證券交易所:600196)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但更重要的問題是:這些債務產生了多少風險?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
通常情況下,只有當一家公司無法輕鬆償付債務時,向籌集資本或通過自身現金流支付債務時,債務才會成爲實際問題。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人就可以控制該企業。然而,更爲頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,一家公司必須以折價的價格發行股份,以永久性稀釋股東,以鞏固其資產負債表。當然,很多公司使用債務資金來實現增長,沒有任何負面後果。
How Much Debt Does Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Carry?
上海復星醫藥(集團)有多少債務?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) had CN¥32.9b of debt, up from CN¥30.0b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥15.0b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥17.9b.
就像您在下面看到的,截至2024年3月底,復星醫藥(集團)負債329億人民幣,比一年前的300億元有所增加。點擊圖片獲取更多詳情。然而,由於它有150億元的現金儲備,淨負債約爲179億元。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240725/0-93ec90106bd0bd87425c92291e2ba468-0-68c0eda484a6fc7b18cd84d09fac29c1.png/big)
How Healthy Is Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)'s Balance Sheet?
上海復星醫藥(集團)的資產負債表狀況如何?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) had liabilities of CN¥33.6b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥22.6b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥15.0b and CN¥8.91b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥32.3b.
根據最近公佈的資產負債表,上海復星醫藥(集團)有336億元的短期債務和226億元的長期債務。另一方面,它有150億元的現金和超過891億元的應收賬款。因此,它的負債比其現金和(短期)應收賬款的總和高出323億元。
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) has a market capitalization of CN¥55.1b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
雖然這看起來很多,但並不那麼糟糕,因爲復星醫藥(集團)的市值爲551億元,所以如果需要,它可以通過增加資本來加強其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們肯定要密切關注它是否能夠管理債務而不採取稀釋措施。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
我們通過查看淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)之比以及計算其利息支出由收益前利息和稅(EBIT)覆蓋的程度來度量一家公司的債務負載相對於其收益能力的程度。此方法的優點在於我們同時考慮了債務的絕對量(以淨債務爲EBITDA)以及與該債務相關的實際利息支出(以其利息覆蓋倍數計算)。
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.6, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. But its EBIT was about 1k times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying a high cost to maintain that level of debt. Even were the low cost to prove unsustainable, that is a good sign. Importantly, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)'s EBIT fell a jaw-dropping 70% in the last twelve months. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)'s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
上海復星醫藥(集團)EBITDA負債比率爲4.6,表明負債很大,但對於大多數類型的企業來說仍然相當合理。但其EBIt約爲其利息支出的0.1萬倍,說明該公司並沒有支付過高的利息來維持那一水平的負債。即使這種低成本的情況不可持續,這也是一個好跡象。重要的是,上海復星醫藥(集團)的EBIt在過去十二個月中驚人地下降了70%。 如果這種下降持續下去,償還債務就會比在素食主義者大會上售賣鵝肝更難。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是一個明顯的開始點。然而,未來的收益,而不是資產負債表,將最終決定上海復星醫藥(集團)能否保持健康的資產負債表。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的意見,您可能會發現分析師利潤預測的這份免費報告很有趣。
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最後,雖然稅務部門可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冰冷的現金。因此,邏輯上的下一步是查看那些與實際自由現金流相匹配的EBIt所佔比例。在過去的三年中,復星醫藥(集團)燒掉了很多現金。雖然這可能是爲了增長的支出,但也使得債務變得更加風險高。
Our View
我們的觀點
On the face of it, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group)'s conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
就表面看來,復星醫藥(集團)的EBIt轉換爲自由現金流的能力使我們對該股持觀望態度,而其EBIt增長率也不比全年最繁忙的夜晚的一家空餐廳更具吸引力。但至少它在支付利息方面做得相當不錯;這是令人鼓舞的。我們很清楚,在資產負債表狀況不佳的情況下,我們認爲上海復星醫藥(集團)確實非常風險,所以我們對這隻股票的警惕程度就像一個飢餓的小貓害怕掉進主人的魚塘一樣:一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井繩。”諺語道。當您分析債務時,資產負債表顯然是需要關注的領域,但並非所有投資風險都存在於資產負債表內。我們已經確定了2個警告信號,需要了解它們並應將其納入您的投資過程中。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。