Upcoming CPI Could Better Capture Diesel Impact: CGS
Upcoming CPI Could Better Capture Diesel Impact: CGS
Inflation in Malaysia remained steady in June 2024, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, consistent with the previous month and slightly below market expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, also held firm at 1.9% year-on-year.
2024年6月,馬來西亞通貨膨脹率保持穩定,消費者價格指數 (CPI) 同比增長 2.0%,與上個月持平,略低於市場預期。核心通脹率,即排除食品和能源等易受波動影響的物品,同樣保持在1.9%的同比水平。
CGS International (CGS), said in its Economics Note today, the recent revision in diesel prices, implemented on June 10, 2024, saw prices surge from RM2.15/litre to RM3.35/litre as part of the government's subsidy rationalisation efforts.
中國銀河(CGS)在其今日的《經濟筆記》中表示,2024年6月10日執行的柴油價格最近修訂使價格從RM2.15/升漲至RM3.35/升,這是政府補貼理性化努力的一部分。
This significant increase in diesel costs has begun to manifest in the CPI, particularly evident in the transport sector, which recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.5% in June. Diesel constitutes 0.2% of the CPI basket.
柴油成本的顯著增加已經開始在CPI中產生影響,尤其是明顯在交通板塊中,6月份環比增長了0.5%。柴油在CPI籃子中佔0.2%。
"Despite the immediate impact on transport costs, the broader effects on related sectors like transport services and food prices have yet to fully materialise, CGS said.
CGS表示:“儘管對交通成本的立竿見影的影響,但有關行業(如交通服務和食品價格)的更廣泛影響尚未完全顯現”。
CGS suggests that the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data, scheduled for release on July 29, may provide further insights into the extent of price pass-through from diesel costs to other components of the CPI.
CGS建議,即將發佈的7月29日的生產者物價指數(PPI)數據可能會進一步闡明柴油成本對CPI中其他成分價格穿透程度的情況。
"Looking ahead, economists project a potentially higher CPI trend in the second half of 2024 as government subsidies continue to be phased out. Factors contributing to inflationary pressures include expected revisions in fuel prices for RON95 gasoline and ongoing adjustments in diesel costs. Additionally, robust macroeconomic indicators such as increased retail sales and consumption imports are anticipated to sustain these price pressures."
CGS表示:“展望未來,經濟學家預計2024年下半年CPI趨勢有可能更高,因爲政府繼續逐步削減補貼。促進通貨膨脹壓力的因素包括RON95汽油價格的預期修訂,以及柴油成本的持續調整。此外,預計強勁的宏觀經濟指標,如零售銷售和消費進口將維持這些價格壓力。”
In terms of monetary policy, the Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.00% through the end of 2024, barring significant shifts in inflationary trends or consumer spending. The central bank's cautious stance reflects a commitment to monitor economic reforms and their impact on inflation dynamics before considering any further adjustments to interest rates.
就貨幣政策而言,除非通脹趨勢或消費支出發生重大變化,否則馬來西亞銀行(BNM)預計將保持隔夜拆放利率(OPR)在3.00%的水平上直到2024年底。央行的謹慎立場反映了在考慮進一步調整利率之前,對監測經濟改革及其對通脹動態的影響的承諾。
Overall, while Malaysia's economy shows resilience amid evolving fuel price dynamics and consumption trends, stakeholders are advised to closely monitor upcoming CPI and PPI releases for clearer signals on inflationary trends and policy directions.
總的來說,雖然馬來西亞經濟表現出在油價和消費趨勢不斷變化的情況下所需的彈性,但利益相關者建議密切監視即將發佈的CPI和PPI數據,以獲取有關通貨膨脹趨勢和政策方向的更清晰信號。