Investors in Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.2% to close at US$117 following the release of its second-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.08, some 24% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$303m. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Enphase Energy after the latest results.

Following last week's earnings report, Enphase Energy's 38 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$1.42b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$0.94, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.19 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$129 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Enphase Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$170 and the most bearish at US$82.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.4% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 30% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Enphase Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Enphase Energy. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Enphase Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Enphase Energy , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com