Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Set To Drop To Lowest Level In Over 3 Years: Is July Rate Cut Possible?
Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Set To Drop To Lowest Level In Over 3 Years: Is July Rate Cut Possible?
Investors are eagerly awaiting Friday's announcement of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, known as the Fed's preferred inflation measure, as it could reinforce expectations of Fed rate cuts and provide relief to risky assets after this week's sharp declines.
投資者們急切地等待着週五的個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數的公佈，它被認爲是聯儲局首選的通脹測量指標，因爲它可以加強市場對聯儲局減息的預期，並在本週的大幅下跌後爲高風險資產提供緩解。
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release key inflation data, along with figures on personal income and spending.
美國經濟分析局將公佈關鍵的通脹數據，以及關於個人收入和支出的數據。
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, up from 1.4% and exceeding the 2% forecast, advance estimates revealed Thursday.
根據初步估計，美國經濟增長率在第二季度按年率調整爲2.8%，高於1.4%的預測和2%的預測。
Notably, the PCE price index indicated a 2.6% annualized growth for the quarter, down from 3.4%, suggesting easing inflation pressures.
值得注意的是，PCE價格指數顯示該季度按年率增長2.6%，低於3.4%，表明通脹壓力有所減緩。
Markets fully price in a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market-implied odds for next week's meeting show a 93% chance of no change in interest rates.
市場已經完全定價了聯儲局在9月份的利率降低。下週會議的市場隱含概率顯示利率不變的概率爲93%。
It's highly unlikely the Fed will lower interest rates this month, even in the case of a cooler PCE data, as policymakers seek more confidence and time to reach the 2% target.
即使出現更爲溫和的PCE數據，聯儲局本月也極不可能減息，因爲政策制定者需要更多信心和時間來達到2%的目標。
June PCE Report: What Do Economists Expect
6月PCE報告：經濟學家們有何預期
- The headline PCE is expected to decrease from 2.6% year-over-year in May 2024 to 2.5% in June, marking its lowest point since February 2021, a level also previously seen in January and February 2024.
- On a monthly basis, the PCE price index is projected to rise by 0.1%, following a previous flat reading.
- The Core PCE is anticipated to decline from 2.6% year-over-year in May 2024 to 2.5% in June, reaching its lowest point since March 2021.
- On a monthly basis, the core PCE price index is expected to increase by 0.1%, consistent with the previous month's reading.
- 據預計，總體PCE從2024年5月的同比增長2.6%下降到今年6月的2.5%，這是自2021年2月以來的最低點，此前也曾在2024年1月和2月出現。
- 按月度計算，PCE物價指數預計將上漲0.1%，而之前則保持不變。
- 核心PCE預計將從2024年5月的同比增長2.6%下降到今年6月的2.5%，達到自2021年3月以來的最低點。
- 按月度計算，核心PCE物價指數預計將上漲0.1%，與上個月的數據相一致。
How Did Markets React To The Prior PCE Report?
市場對上一份PCE報告的反應如何？
The cooler-than-expected May PCE report, released on June 28, triggered mixed market reactions, with both large-cap stocks and bonds falling during the session.
6月28日發佈的PCE報告，表現未達預期，市場反應出現分化，大盤股和債券在該交易日都下跌。
The S&P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), fell 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), slipped 0.5%.
標普500指數在SPDR標普500 ETF信託（紐交所代碼：SPY）跟蹤下跌了0.4%，而科技股爲主的納斯達克100指數ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust（納斯達克代碼：QQQ）則下跌了0.5%。
Small caps outperformed large-cap stocks, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) closing 0.4% higher.
小盤股表現優於大盤股，而iShares Russell 2000 ETF（紐交所代碼：IWM）上漲了0.4%。
Bonds tumbled, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), falling 1.9%.
債券暴跌，iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（納斯達克代碼：TLT）下跌了1.9%。
U.S. major averages are down this week, with the Nasdaq 100 recording the worst session since December 2022 on Wednesday.
本週，美國股市主要指數下跌，納斯達克100指數自2022年12月以來出現最糟糕的一次交易。
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