Here's Why Guangxi Energy (SHSE:600310) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Here's Why Guangxi Energy (SHSE:600310) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Guangxi Energy Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600310) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
傳奇基金經理陸奇(得到查理·芒格的支持)曾經說過,「最大的投資風險不是價格波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性的資本損失。」當我們考慮一家公司的風險性時,我們總是喜歡看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務超載會導致破產。值得注意的是,廣西能源股份有限公司(SHSE:600310)確實有債務,但股東們是否應該擔心它的債務使用情況?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
債務可以幫助業務直至業務出現還款問題,無論是借新的資本還是用自由現金流還款均可。在最糟糕的情況下,公司如果不能償還債權人的欠款則會破產。然而,一個更常見但仍然令人痛苦的情況是,公司必須以低價籌集新的股本資本,從而永久性地稀釋股東的股份。然而,爲了替代稀釋,債務可以是業務的一種非常好的工具,這可以幫助業務以高回報率投資於增長。考慮業務使用多少債務時,首先要做的是將其現金和債務放在一起看。
What Is Guangxi Energy's Net Debt?
廣西能源的淨債務是多少?
As you can see below, Guangxi Energy had CN¥11.5b of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥1.90b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥9.64b.
正如下面所示,截至2024年3月,廣西能源的債務總額爲115億元人民幣,與去年大致相同。您可以點擊圖表查看更多詳細信息。另一方面,它有19億元人民幣的現金,淨債務約爲96.4億元人民幣。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240726/0-4a67a0196b11f9801ee11e69decea3fc-0-7e2f320d69d4d8df162dd70b5dc1af0c.png/big)
How Healthy Is Guangxi Energy's Balance Sheet?
廣西能源的資產負債表狀況如何?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Guangxi Energy had liabilities of CN¥6.85b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥7.96b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.90b and CN¥959.7m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥11.9b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到廣西能源有6850萬元人民幣的負債應在12個月內到期,796億元人民幣的負債到期日在12個月以上。另一方面,它有19億元人民幣和95970萬元人民幣的應收賬款到期在一年內。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的組合多出119億元人民幣。這種赤字像一個盤踞在凡人之上的巨像一樣籠罩着這個583億元人民幣的公司。因此,我們股東們肯定需要密切關注這一點。畢竟,如果廣西能源今天必須支付其債權人,它可能需要進行重大的再資本化。
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥5.83b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Guangxi Energy would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
0.93倍的低利息覆蓋率和9.6倍的EBITDA淨債務比率像一記左右鉤拳一樣打擊了我們對廣西能源的信心。這裏的債務負擔相當大。好消息是,廣西能源過去12個月提高了7.6%的EBIt,從而逐漸降低了其相對於收益的債務水平。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是開始的明顯地點。但與其它任何事情相比,未來的收益才是決定廣西能源能否維持健康資產負債表的關鍵。因此,如果您關注未來,可以查看這份顯示分析師利潤預測的免費報告。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
爲了比較一個公司的債務與其收益的關係,我們計算其淨債務除以利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前的收益和利息前的收益(其利息覆蓋率)。因此,我們考慮了債務的絕對數量以及支付的利率。
Weak interest cover of 0.93 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 9.6 hit our confidence in Guangxi Energy like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. The good news is that Guangxi Energy improved its EBIT by 7.6% over the last twelve months, thus gradually reducing its debt levels relative to its earnings. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Guangxi Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
最後,一家企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤不夠不行。因此,下一個邏輯步驟是查看EBIt中實現的實際自由現金流的比例。考慮過去三年,廣西能源實際上是總體現金流出,而且債務通常在負自由現金流的的公司手中更昂貴,也更有風險。股東們應該希望有所改善。坦率地說,廣西能源的利息覆蓋率和總負債水平的數量使我們對其債務水平感到不舒服。但好消息是,它的EBIt增長率是一個好的跡象,使我們更加樂觀。我們還應該注意到,像廣西能源這樣的公用股公司通常會毫無問題地使用債務。在考慮討論的數據點之後,我們認爲廣西能源債務過多。這種風險性對於某些人來說是可以接受的,但對我們來說肯定不是好事。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是開始的明顯地點。但是,最終,每家企業都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。這些風險可能很難發現。每個公司都會面臨這些風險,我們已經爲廣西能源發現了3個預警信號(其中2個不能忽視!)您應該知道。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Guangxi Energy actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
最後,爲了償還債務,一個企業需要有自由現金流;會計利潤不能勝任。因此,下一個邏輯步驟是觀察EBIt中實現的實際自由現金流所佔比例。考慮過去的三年,廣西能源實際上是總體現金流出。自由現金流通常比債務更昂貴,也總是更有風險在負自由現金流的企業手中。股東應該希望有所改善。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both Guangxi Energy's interest cover and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We should also note that Electric Utilities industry companies like Guangxi Energy commonly do use debt without problems. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Guangxi Energy has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Guangxi Energy (of which 2 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
坦白地說,廣西能源的利息覆蓋率以及保持其總負債優勢的歷史記錄使我們對其債務水平感到不舒服。但好的方面是,廣西能源的EBIT增長率是個好兆頭,使我們更加樂觀。我們還應該注意到,像廣西能源這樣的公用股公司通常可以沒有問題地使用債務。綜合考慮討論的數據點後,我們認爲廣西能源的債務過高。這種冒險對一些人來說可能是可以接受的,但它肯定不符合我們的利益。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是明顯的起點。但最終,每家公司都可能存在資產負債表以外的風險。這些風險很難發現。每家公司都有風險,我們已發現廣西能源的3個警示信號(其中有2個不能忽視!)你應該知道。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。