For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term PagerDuty, Inc. (NYSE:PD) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 50% over a half decade.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$69m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

PagerDuty wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last half decade, PagerDuty saw its revenue increase by 24% per year. That's better than most loss-making companies. Shareholders are no doubt disappointed with the loss of 8%, each year, in that time. You could say that the market has been harsh, given the top line growth. So now is probably an apt time to look closer at the stock, if you think it has potential.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

PagerDuty is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think PagerDuty will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)

A Different Perspective

Investors in PagerDuty had a tough year, with a total loss of 15%, against a market gain of about 20%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for PagerDuty that you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com