Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Shows Mixed Readings, Personal Income, Spending Fall: September Rate Cut Remains Likely
Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Shows Mixed Readings, Personal Income, Spending Fall: September Rate Cut Remains Likely
The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index continued to decline in June as economists anticipated, continuing to bolster the case for a Fed rate cut in September.
個人消費支出(PCE)價格指數在6月份繼續下降，正如經濟學家所預期的那樣，這進一步支持在9月份進行聯儲局減息的情況。
The PCE — a basket of goods and services that most U.S. consumers buy, commonly referred to as the Fed's favorite inflation gauge — witnessed a 2.5% annual increase last month, down from a 2.6% surge in May. Yet when excluding energy and food items, the basket held steady from the previous month.
PCE是美國大多數消費者購買的商品和服務的籃子，也是聯儲局最喜歡的通貨膨脹衡量標準，上個月 witnessed了一項2.5％的年度增長，較5月份的2.6％激增略有下降。但是，如果排除能源和食品項目，該籃子與上個月持平。
Concurrently, the pace of increase in personal income and spending fell more than expected, indicating signs of weakness in demand.
同時，在個人收入和支出的增長速度下降超過預期，表明需求疲軟的跡象。
June PCE Inflation, Personal Income Reports: Key Highlights
6月PCE通脹和個人收入報告：重點亮點
- The PCE price index eased from 2.6% year-over-year in May to 2.5% in June. This annual PCE inflation rate was in line with the forecasted 2.5%, according to Tradingeconomics data.
- On a monthly basis, the PCE price index rose 0.1%, up from the previous unchanged reading, matching expectations.
- Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index held steady at 2.6% year-over-year in June, missing expectations of a drop to 2.5%.
- On a monthly basis, the core PCE price index increased by 0.2%, increasing from 0.1% in May, and topping expectations.
- Personal income saw a 0.2% increase compared to May, down from the previous 0.4% month-over-month increase and below the estimated 0.4%.
- Personal spending rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month, also down from a 0.4% rate in May and missing the predicted 0.3% rise.
- PCE價格指數從5月份的同比2.6％下降到6月份的2.5％。根據Tradingeconomics數據，此年度PCE通脹率符合預測的2.5％。
- 按月計算，PCE價格指數上升0.1％，高於前一個不變的讀數，並達到預期水平。
- 去除食品和能源，核心PCE價格指數在6月份年同比持平於2.6％，未達到2.5％的預期下降。
- 按月計算，核心PCE價格指數上升0.2％，高於5月份的0.1％，並超過預期。
- 個人收入較5月份增加了0.2％，低於上一個0.4％的月度增長和預期的0.4％。
- 個人支出與上個月相比上升了0.3％，也低於5月份的0.4％的比率，未達到預測的0.3％的增長。
Market Reactions
市場反應
Before the inflation report, traders anticipated a 100% chance of a September rate cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
在通貨膨脹報告公佈前，根據CME Group的FedWatch工具，交易商預計9月份會有100％的減息機會。
Between now and December, 64 basis points of rate cuts are priced in, suggesting at least one more rate reduction following the Fed's September meeting.
在現在和12月份之間，市場已定價64個點子的減息，這表明在聯儲局9月份會議後至少還有一次減息。
The inflation and personal income data caused Treasury yields to slightly decline Friday morning, with the rate-sensitive two-year yield dropping by 2 basis points to 4.41%.
通脹和個人收入數據導致國債收益率週五上午略有下降，利率敏感的2年期收益率下降2個點子至4.41％。
Equity futures rose during premarket trading, with S&P 500 contracts up 0.8% and Nasdaq 100 contracts rallying 1.1%.
股指期貨在盤前交易中上漲，標普500指數合約上漲0.8％，納斯達克100指數合約上漲1.1％。
On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) fell by 0.5%.
週四，SPDR標普500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY)下跌0.5％。
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圖片來自Shutterstock。