As $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ gears up to announce its Q2 earnings on Thursday after the market close, anticipation is building around what could be a remarkable performance.
With just six days to go, BofA Securities' analyst Justin Post has painted an optimistic picture for the e-commerce and cloud giant, with a $220 price target (a potential 22.3% upside) and maintaining a Buy rating.
Aiming For A Q2 Beat: $149 Billion Revenue In Sight
Post forecasts Amazon's Q2 revenues to hit $149 billion, 40 basis points above Wall Street's expectations. AWS is expected to grow at 18% year-over-year, beating the Street's 17% estimate.
With a projected operating profit of $14 billion, Amazon might surprise investors by exceeding expectations, potentially reaching as high as $15-$16 billion due to favorable factors like third-party fees and Prime advertising growth.
Retail Sales, Cloud Powering Growth At Amazon
Data trends suggest a promising Q2 for Amazon. Online spending growth has accelerated, according to BofA's aggregated card data and Bloomberg Second Measure, contradicting the Street's prediction of a more significant decline.
According to Post, AWS is set to benefit from robust backlog growth and increasing consumption spending, especially in AI model training. Additionally, Google's recent positive results signal limited pricing pressure for AWS, indicating a one-point quarterly acceleration and margin improvement.
Read Also: Amazon Tests AI Chips in Texas Lab, Aims to Cut Nvidia Costs
Cautious Q3 Outlook Amidst Margin Concerns
Despite the upbeat Q2 outlook, Post advises caution for Q3 profit guidance, citing high expectations and rising freight costs as potential risks.
Historically, Amazon's Q3 guidance tends to be conservative, often falling short of the Street's estimates, only to outperform by an average of 33% over the past three years. Post projects Q3 revenue guidance between $155.5 billion and $160.5 billion, suggesting a 5% quarter-on-quarter growth, with GAAP operating profit ranging from $12 billion to $15.5 billion.
Still Room for Growth Despite Expanded Multiples
Amazon's stock may be valued at 12.8x EV/EBITDA, below its 10-year average of 17x, but Post sees ample room for multiple expansions in 2024.
With expanding retail margins supported by Prime ad growth and AWS acceleration, Amazon is poised for further gains. Post emphasizes that improving margins justify a more traditional P/E valuation framework. The 30.7x Street '25 GAAP EPS is seen as reasonable, given the expected 27% two-year GAAP earnings growth CAGR.
As Amazon approaches its Q2 earnings release, all eyes are on the e-commerce giant to deliver another strong performance. With solid revenue estimates, cloud growth, and an optimistic outlook for the remainder of 2024, Amazon remains a compelling investment opportunity with a potential 22.3% upside, according to Post.
Will Jeff Bezos' brainchild continue to defy expectations and deliver another knockout quarter? We'll find out soon enough.
正如《華盛頓郵報》今年早些時候所指出的那樣,數據中心在2022年消費的全國電力總量超過了4%。鑑於人工智能和各種數字創新的爆炸性需求,這並不令人驚訝。然而,這些技術對電網造成了巨大壓力。$亞馬遜 (AMZN.US)$在週四市場收盤之後,加油宣佈其Q2收益的消息,人們對可能出現的出色表現充滿期待。
距離截止日期只有六天,美銀證券的分析師賈斯汀·波斯特(Justin Post)爲這家電子商務和雲計算巨頭描繪了一個樂觀的前景,並給出了220美元的價格目標(潛在上漲22.3%),並保持買入評級。
力爭二季度勝利:目標營收達到1490億美元
波斯特預測亞馬遜二季度的營收將達到1490億美元,比華爾街預期高40個點子。AWS預計將以18%的年增長率增長,高於街道估計的17%。
預計營業利潤爲140億美元,由於第三方費用和Prime廣告增長等因素的優勢,亞馬遜可能會超出預期,潛在地達到150億至160億美元。
在亞馬遜實現增長的過程中,零售銷售和雲服務功不可沒。
數據趨勢表明亞馬遜將會有一個有希望的二季度。根據美銀的統計信用卡數據和彭博第二尺度,在線消費增長有所加快,與街頭的預測背道而馳。
根據波斯特的說法,AWS有望從強勁的積壓訂單增長和消費支出增加中受益,特別是在人工智能模型培訓方面。此外,谷歌最近的股票上漲結果表明AWS存在着有限的定價壓力,暗示着其季度加速和利潤率的提高。
閱讀更多:亞馬遜在德克薩斯州實驗室測試人工智能芯片,目標是削減英偉達成本
對利潤的擔憂導致謹慎的第三季度展望
儘管展望不錯,但波斯特對第三季度的利潤指南建議保持謹慎,他認爲高預期和運費上漲可能是潛在的風險。
歷史上,亞馬遜的第三季度展望往往是保守的,常常低於街頭的預期,但在過去三年中平均超過街頭預期了33%。波斯特預計第三季度的營收指南將在1555億至1605億美元之間,每股收益報告中的營業利潤預計將在120億至155億美元之間。
儘管倍增,但仍有增長空間
亞馬遜股票可能被估值爲12.8倍的企業價值/ EBITDA,低於其十年均值的17倍,但波斯特認爲它在2024年仍有足夠的多重擴張空間。
隨着Prime廣告增長和AWS業務加速等因素不斷擴大的利潤率,亞馬遜有望獲得進一步的收益。波斯特強調說,這種改善的利潤率說明了更好的P/E估值框架。街頭‘25 GAAP EPS爲30.7倍,鑑於預期的27%的兩年GAAP盈利增長CAGR,被認爲是合理的。
隨着亞馬遜接近二季度收益發布,所有人都在關注這家電商巨頭是否會再次實現強勁的業績。根據堅實的收入估計、雲計算增長和對2024年剩餘時間的樂觀展望,據賈斯汀·波斯特稱,亞馬遜仍然是一個有吸引力的投資機會,潛在上漲22.3%。
傑夫·貝佐斯的創意是否會繼續超越預期,實現另外一個傑出的季度表現?我們很快就會知道。