Stelux Holdings International's (HKG:84) Earnings Might Be Weaker Than You Think
Stelux Holdings International's (HKG:84) Earnings Might Be Weaker Than You Think
Solid profit numbers didn't seem to be enough to please Stelux Holdings International Limited's (HKG:84) shareholders. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.
實際上,Stelux Holdings International Limited(HKG:84)的強勁利潤數字並不足以取悅其股東。我們認爲,他們可能會關心我們的分析發現的一些潛在細節。
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Examining Cashflow Against Stelux Holdings International's Earnings
檢查現金流與寶光實業收入的對比
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
許多投資者沒有聽說過從現金流計算的應計比率,但這實際上是一個衡量公司利潤在特定期間內是否由自由現金流(FCF)支持的有用度量。簡單地說,此比率從淨利潤中減去FCF,再將該數字除以公司在該期間內的平均營運資產。你可以把從現金流計算的應計比率看作是「非自由現金流利潤比率」。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
這意味着負的應計比率是一件好事,因爲它表明公司帶來的自由現金流比其利潤所顯示的更多。雖然擁有正的應計比率並不是問題,表明一定程度的非現金利潤,但高應計比率可能是一件壞事,因爲這表明紙面利潤不能得到現金流支持。這是因爲一些學術研究表明,高應計比率往往導致較低的利潤或利潤增長率。
Stelux Holdings International has an accrual ratio of 0.59 for the year to March 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of HK$31m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of HK$473.2m. It's worth noting that Stelux Holdings International generated positive FCF of HK$54m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. One positive for Stelux Holdings International shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
2024年3月份的寶光實業應計率爲0.59。從統計學角度來看,這對未來的收益是真正的負面影響。換句話說,該公司在那段時間裏沒有產生任何自由現金流。去年,它實際上產生了3100萬港元的負面現金流,而營業收入則爲47320萬港元。值得注意的是,寶光實業在一年前產生了5400萬港元的正自由現金流,所以至少他們曾經做到過。但是,我們還需要考慮更多因素。應計比率反映的是非正常項目對公司財務利潤的影響。值得慶幸的是,寶光實業去年的應計比率要好得多,這使得我們有理由相信它將來會回歸強勁的現金轉化。因此,一些股東可能在尋求當前一年的更強現金轉化。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Stelux Holdings International.
注意:我們始終建議投資者檢查資產負債表的強度。點擊此處以進入我們對寶光實業資產負債表分析的詳細介紹。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常規項目如何影響利潤?
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by HK$502m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that Stelux Holdings International's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to March 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
事實上,寶光實業上一年的非正常項目增加了5,0200萬港元的利潤,這可能能夠在一定程度上解釋其應計比率如此之低的原因。雖然我們喜歡看到利潤的增加,但當非常規項目產生重大貢獻時,我們往往會更加謹慎。在我們分析全球絕大多數上市公司時,我們發現重大非正常項目經常不會重複。這並不奇怪,考慮到其名稱就知道了。我們可以看到,相對於2024年3月份的利潤,寶光實業的正非正常項目非常顯著。其他條件相等的情況下,這可能會使財務利潤成爲判斷基準相對較差。
Our Take On Stelux Holdings International's Profit Performance
我們對寶光實業的利潤表現的看法
Summing up, Stelux Holdings International received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Stelux Holdings International's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Stelux Holdings International you should be mindful of and 1 of these is potentially serious.
總之,儘管某些非正常項目提高了寶光實業的利潤,但該公司無法用自由現金流與其表面利潤相匹配。因此,基於上述所有原因,我們認爲寶光實業的財務利潤在一瞥之下可能被認爲是低質量的,因爲它們很可能給投資者留下過於樂觀的印象。有此想法的話,帶着這個意識我們不會考慮投資股票,除非我們對風險有徹底的了解。例子:我們在寶光實業發現了2個警告信號,您應該注意到其中1個可能非常嚴重。
Our examination of Stelux Holdings International has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
我們對寶光實業的審查集中在某些因素上,這些因素可以使其收益看起來比實際情況更好。基於此,我們持謹慎態度。但是還有很多其他方法可以了解一家公司。有些人認爲高股本回報率是一家優質企業的良好跡象。因此您可能希望查看這個免費的高股本回報率公司系列,以及這個具有高內部所有權的股票列表。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。