Earnings Miss: Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical., Ltd Missed EPS By 25% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Earnings Miss: Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical., Ltd Missed EPS By 25% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Last week, you might have seen that Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical., Ltd (SHSE:600436) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.2% to CN¥210 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at CN¥0.93, some 25% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at CN¥2.5b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical after the latest results.
上週,你可能已經看到了片仔黃製藥發佈了季度業績報告。早期市場反應不是很好,過去一週股票下跌了9.2%至210元人民幣。每股收益遠低於預期,爲0.93元人民幣,比分析師預測低25%,儘管營業收入符合分析師預測約爲250億元人民幣。在發佈報告後,分析師更新了其盈利模型,了解他們是否認爲公司前景發生了重大變化,或者是否仍是老套路。讀者們會很高興了解,我們已經匯聚了最新的統計預測,以查看分析師在最新業績報告後是否對片仔黃製藥改變了看法。
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical's eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥11.2b in 2024. This would reflect a modest 4.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 7.6% to CN¥5.31. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥11.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥5.56 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.
考慮到最新的業績,片仔黃製藥的11名分析師目前的共識是2024年營業收入爲112億元人民幣。這反映了過去12個月營業收入的適度增長4.9%。每股收益預計將增加7.6%至5.31元人民幣。在提交這份報告之前,分析師一直在模擬2024年收入爲115億元人民幣,每股收益爲5.56元人民幣。很明顯,在最新的業績報告之後,悲觀情緒已經浮現,導致營收展望不佳和每股收益預測略微下降。
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥275 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical analyst has a price target of CN¥358 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥182. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
儘管預測盈利下降,但沒有對275元人民幣的目標價進行真正的改變,表明分析師認爲這些變化對其內在價值沒有實質性影響。然而,我們從這些數據中得出的結論不止於此,因爲一些投資者也喜歡在評估分析師目標價格時考慮估計值的價差。最樂觀的片仔黃製藥分析師的目標價爲358元人民幣,而最悲觀的目標價爲182元人民幣。這是一個相當廣泛的估計值區間,這意味着分析師預測企業的可能成果範圍相當廣泛。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical.
就整體情況而言,我們理解預測的方式之一是通過將其與過去業績以及行業增長預估進行比較。很顯然,預計片仔癀的營業收入增長將大幅放緩,到2024年底時預計將平均每年增長10%。而在過去的五年中,歷史增長率爲14%。將這與行業內其他公司(具有分析師預測)進行比較,預計年均收入增長12%。所以很明顯,雖然預計營業收入增長將放緩,但行業整體預計也將比片仔癀增長更快。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥275, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
最大的擔憂是分析師下調了其每股收益預測,暗示片仔黃製藥可能會面臨業務阻礙。在負面方面,他們還下調了其營業收入預測,並且預測表明它們的展望將劣於整個行業。共識目標價保持在275元人民幣,最新的預測不足以對其目標價產生影響。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
在此基礎上,我們認爲企業的長期前景比明年的收益更加相關。我們對片仔黃製藥到2026年的預測,您可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
We also provide an overview of the Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
我們還提供了片仔黃製藥董事會和CEO的報酬和公司任期的概述,以及內部人士是否購買了該股票。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。