US$357 - That's What Analysts Think Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) Is Worth After These Results
US$357 - That's What Analysts Think Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) Is Worth After These Results
Shareholders of Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$372 following its latest second-quarter results. Pool reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.8b and statutory earnings per share of US$4.99, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Pool after the latest results.
本週,Pool股東(納斯達克:POOL)將會非常高興,因爲其股價已經上漲13%,達到372美元,這一漲幅是基於公司發佈的最新業績的。Pool的業績數據表明,公司實現了18億美元的營業收入和每股4.99美元的盈利,與分析師預測一致,表明該業務表現出色,與計劃一致。這是投資者們重要的時期,他們可以通過報告追蹤公司的表現,了解專家預測下一年的情況,以及觀察業務是否是否符合預期。讀者們會很高興得知,我們已經整合了最新的預測數據,以查看分析師是否在最新的業績發佈之後改變了對Pool的看法。
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Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Pool provided consensus estimates of US$5.25b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a small 2.2% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 6.6% to US$11.16 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$5.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.15 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
鑑於最新的業績,覆蓋Pool的11位分析師提供了2024年52.5億美元的收入的一致預測,這反映了過去12個月內小幅下降的2.2%。同期每股收益預計下降6.6%至11.16美元。但在最新業績發佈之前,分析師們預計在2024年,Pool的收入爲51.9億美元,每股收益爲11.15美元。通過比較可以看出,儘管分析師已經更新他們的預測,但是最新業績發佈後,業務預期並沒有發生重大改變。
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 10% to US$357. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Pool, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$415 and the most bearish at US$310 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
儘管分析師再次確定了他們對收入和盈利的預測,但價格目標卻意外地上漲了10%,達到了357美元。這似乎表明他們之前對業務能否達到預期存在一些疑慮。不過還有一種思考價格目標的方式,那就是關注分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲衆多的估值範圍意味着對業務可能出現的不同結果存在不同的看法。對於Pool,有一些不同的看法,其中看法最爲樂觀的分析師認爲其每股價值爲415美元,而看法最爲悲觀的則認爲其每股價值僅爲310美元。由於估值範圍較窄,分析師之間顯然對業務的價值看法較爲一致。
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.8% per year. It's pretty clear that Pool's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
現在來看大局,我們可以通過將這些預測與過去的表現和行業增長預期進行比較,來了解它們。這些預測暗示營業收入預計將放緩,到2024年底年化下降4.4%。這表明與過去五年的年增長率13%相比,有着顯著的減少。與我們的數據進行對比,我們的數據顯示,同行業的其他公司預計年平均營業收入增長3.8%。很明顯,Pool的營收表現預計將遠遠不及更廣泛的行業。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析師增加了它對下一年每股虧損的估計。令人欣慰的是,營收預測未發生重大變化,業務仍有望比整個行業增長更快。共識價格目標穩定在28.50美元,最新估計不足以對價格目標產生影響。
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
最明顯的結論是,最近業務前景沒有發生重大變化,分析師們保持收益預測穩定,與之前的估計保持一致。好處是,營業收入估計沒有發生實質性變化,儘管預測表明其表現將不如更廣泛的行業。共識目標價也有一個不錯的增長,分析師們顯然認爲業務內在價值正在提高。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Pool going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考慮到這一點,我們認爲更長期的發展軌跡對於投資者來說更爲重要。我們已經爲Pool的2026年預測做好了準備,並且您可以在此免費查看。
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Pool that you should be aware of.
然而,在您熱情高漲之前,我們發現了Pool的1個警告信號,您需要注意。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。