Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$825m, some 2.4% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$4.52, 29% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Deckers Outdoor after the latest results.

Following the latest results, Deckers Outdoor's 21 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.81b in 2025. This would be a notable 8.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$31.94, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$31.05 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Deckers Outdoor's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$1,082, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Deckers Outdoor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$1,350 and the most bearish at US$887 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Deckers Outdoor's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Deckers Outdoor is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Deckers Outdoor's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$1,082, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Deckers Outdoor. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Deckers Outdoor analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Deckers Outdoor that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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