Does China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (SZSE:001979) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Does China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (SZSE:001979) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. (SZSE:001979) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
傳奇基金經理李錄(得到了查理·芒格的支持)曾經說過:“最大的投資風險不在於價格的波動,而在於你是否會承受永久性的資本損失。”在考慮一個公司的風險時,我們總是願意看它的債務使用情況,因爲債務過多會導致滅亡。與許多其他公司一樣,招商蛇口(SZSE:001979)也在利用債務,但這種債務是否令股東擔憂呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什麼時候負債才是一個問題?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
在企業出現困難無法用新的資本或自由現金流償還債務時,債務對企業有幫助。 如果情況變得非常糟糕,放貸人可能會控制企業。 無論如何,更常見的情況(但仍然代價高昂)是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支持其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處在於,它常常代表着廉價資本,尤其是當它代替具備以高回報率進行再投資能力的公司時。在考慮公司的債務使用情況時,我們首先看現金和債務。
What Is China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings's Net Debt?
招商蛇口的淨債務是多少?
As you can see below, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings had CN¥217.5b of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it also had CN¥83.3b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥134.2b.
正如您下面所看到的,招商蛇口於2024年3月擁有2175億元的債務,與前一年大致相同。 您可以單擊圖表以獲取更詳細信息。 但是,它還有833億元的現金,因此其淨債務爲1342億元。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240730/0-a48e0cabc405cbd3681259f607b6291c-0-c6def9a2f9bcd8e3d78a6f787c9e1bf8.png/big)
A Look At China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings' Liabilities
從最近的資產負債表中我們可以看到,招商蛇口的負債總計4303億元,一年內到期,而那些超過一年的負債總計1925億元。 對沖這些義務,它有833億元的現金以及價值1250億元的應收款項,一年內到期。 因此,它的負債總計爲4145億元,超過其現金和短期應收款項的組合。這個不足之處讓這家743億元的公司背上了沉重的包袱,就像一個孩子揹着一個裝滿書、體育用品和小號的巨大揹包一樣。因此,我們肯定認爲股東需要密切關注這一點。 歸根結底,如果債權人要求償還,招商蛇口很可能需要進行重大資本重組。
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings had liabilities of CN¥430.3b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥192.5b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥83.3b as well as receivables valued at CN¥125.0b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥414.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
招商蛇口資產負債表的現狀顯示,其負債總額爲4317億元,其中一年內到期的有4303億元,超過一年的總計1925億元。 在兌現這些義務的同時,招商蛇口可以利用現有的833億元現金,以及一年內到期的1250億元應收款項。 因此,它的負債總計超過現金和短期應收款項的組合4145億元。
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥74.3b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
這種不足重壓着743億元的公司本身,就像一個孩子揹着一個裝滿書、體育用品和小號的巨大揹包一樣。所以我們絕對認爲股東需要密切關注這一點。歸根結底,如果債權人要求償還,招商蛇口可能需要進行重大資本重組。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
BJ批發俱樂部控股公司的淨債務只有EBITDA的0.62倍。而其EBIT輕鬆覆蓋其利息費用,比例爲12.6倍。因此,我們對其超級保守的債務使用感到相當放心。雖然BJ批發俱樂部控股公司在EBIT方面沒有取得太多進展,但至少其盈利保持穩定。當分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯然的切入點。但歸根結底,企業未來的盈利能力將決定BJ批發俱樂部控股公司能否隨着時間的推移加強資產負債表。因此,如果你要關注未來,可以查看一下這份免費的分析報告,了解分析師的盈利預測。
As it happens China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 8.1 but very strong interest coverage of 1k. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Unfortunately, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings's EBIT flopped 14% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
正如你看到的,招商蛇口的淨債務與EBITDA比率爲8.1,但利息覆蓋率非常強,爲0.1萬。這意味着除非公司有可獲得的非常低廉的債務,否則利息支出可能會在未來增加。不幸的是,在過去的四個季度中,招商蛇口的EBIt下降了14%。如果收益繼續以這個速度下降,那麼處理債務將比帶着三個五歲以下的孩子去一個花哨的餐廳複雜得多。分析債務水平時,資產負債表是一個明顯的起點。但是,最重要的是未來的收益,這將決定招商蛇口未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果您想了解專業人士的看法,您可能會發現對分析師盈利預測的這份免費報告很有興趣。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings created free cash flow amounting to 19% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
畢竟,公司只能用冷硬現金而不是會計利潤償還債務。因此,我們明確需要查看EBIt是否帶來相應的自由現金流。在過去的三年中,招商蛇口創造了總額相當於其EBIt的19%的自由現金流,表現平平。這種低迷的現金轉換水平削弱了其管理和償還債務的能力。
Our View
我們的觀點
On the face of it, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...
事實上,招商蛇口的淨債務/EBITDA使我們對該股持謹慎態度,其總負債水平並不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚上唯一的一個空餐廳更具吸引力。但至少它以其EBIT很好地覆蓋了其利息費用,這是令人鼓舞的。考慮到我們討論的數據點,我們認爲招商蛇口的債務過多。這種風險對某些人來說沒關係,但對於我們來說肯定不可取。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解到的債務信息最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都在資產負債表中——離它遠了。請注意,招商蛇口在我們的投資分析中顯示了4個警示信號,其中1個與我們不太合適……
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有興趣投資能夠在不負債的情況下增長利潤的企業,請查看這份免費列表,其中列出了在資產負債表上擁有淨現金的成長型企業。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。