Jerome Powell Faces Trump Dilemma Over Potential Policy Shocks Amid Growing Election Uncertainty, Says Former New York Fed Member
Jerome Powell Faces Trump Dilemma Over Potential Policy Shocks Amid Growing Election Uncertainty, Says Former New York Fed Member
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the Federal Reserve is grappling with the potential impact of former President Donald Trump's policy shocks on the economy and interest rates. This has created a dilemma for the Fed, which is now considering the possibility of a second Trump presidency and the potential policy changes that could follow. They also consider the possibility that Vice President Kamala Harris could shift the balance.
在美國總統大選即將到來之際，聯邦儲備委員會正在處理前總統特朗普政策衝擊對經濟和利率的潛在影響。這給聯邦儲備委員會帶來了困境，現在他們正在考慮第二任特朗普總統可能帶來的潛在政策變化。他們還考慮到副總統賀錦麗可能會改變平衡。
What Happened: The Fed is currently faced with a complex situation, as it must consider the potential impact of Trump policy shocks on the economy and interest rates, according to an opinion piece published in Financial Times by Krishna Guha, vice-chair of Evercore ISI and a former member of the management committee of the New York Fed.
據Finanical Times刊登的 Krishna Guha 的一篇觀點文章稱，聯儲局當前面臨複雜的局面，因爲它必須考慮特朗普政策衝擊對經濟和利率的潛在影響。Guha是Evercore ISI的副主席和紐約聯儲管理委員會的前成員。
The Fed's current Summary of Economic Projections is essentially a "constrained Harris" forecast, assuming no new shocks, likely in a scenario where Harris wins but is limited by a Republican Senate.
聯儲局當前的經濟預測摘要基本上是一份“限制的賀錦麗”預測，假設沒有新的衝擊，很可能是在賀錦麗獲勝但被共和黨控制的情況下。
However, the potential for Trump to disrupt the status quo is a significant concern. This has led to a dilemma for the Fed: whether to update its policy plans early in light of prospective shocks or wait and risk falling behind the curve again.
然而，特朗普破壞現狀的潛力是一個重大問題。這給聯邦儲備委員會帶來了一個困境：是更新其政策計劃還是等待再次落後於大勢。
The Fed is also aware of the difficulty of modeling both the mechanical impacts and the effects on animal spirits and risk premia. It does not want to appear as if it is prejudging Trump policies as inflationary during the election season, according to the piece.
聯邦儲備委員會還意識到模擬機械影響和動物精神以及風險溢價的難度。根據這篇文章，它不想在選舉季節被視爲預先判斷特朗普的政策具有通脹性。
"On current information, well positioned in mid-2025 might mean a rate in the 4 to 4.5% range — significantly below the current 5.25 to 5.5% rate, but still a bit restrictive," Guha wrote.
Guha寫道：“根據當前信息，在2025年中期處於良好位置可能意味着利率在4到4.5％的區間內，這比目前的5.25到5.5％的利率明顯低得多，但仍然有點嚴格。”
Why It Matters: The Fed's current predicament is the latest development in a series of events that have put the central bank under intense scrutiny. Earlier this year, the Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell was under intense scrutiny as the U.S. presidential election approached.
爲什麼它事關重要：聯邦儲備委員會當前的困境是一系列事件的最新發展，這些事件使得中央銀行受到了嚴密的審查。今年早些時候，在美國總統大選臨近之際，聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾備受關注。
Market experts were questioning Powell's ability to remain independent of political pressure. This was followed by the Fed's May FOMC meeting, where the minutes delivered a harsh reality check to investors, countering the dovish signals earlier conveyed by Powell during the May press conference. The minutes reignited investor fears about the increasing likelihood of a prolonged period of high interest rates.
市場專家開始質疑鮑威爾維持獨立於政治壓力的能力。緊隨其後的是聯儲局5月FOMC會議，其中會議紀要向投資者發出了一個嚴峻的現實警告，這與鮑威爾在5月份新聞發佈會上傳達的鴿派信號相反。 紀要重新點燃了投資者對高利率持續時間加長的擔憂。
However, the situation seemed to be shifting when, in July, the Fed's potential rate cut plans were hinted at by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Williams suggested that a rate cut could be on the cards if the recent slowdown in inflation persists, indicating that the Fed might be closer to this decision than previously thought.
但是，當紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長威廉姆斯暗示聯儲局可能削減利率時，情況似乎在轉變。威廉姆斯表示，如果最近的通貨膨脹放緩持續，削減利率可能成爲選項，這表明聯儲局可能比先前預計更接近這個決定。
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Kaustubh Bagalkote
這個故事是使用Benzinga Neuro生成的，並由Kaustubh Bagalkote編輯