Summer Doldrums Tend To Hit Stock Market In August, Low To Negative Returns Historically
Summer Doldrums Tend To Hit Stock Market In August, Low To Negative Returns Historically
August is not historically a very good month for stocks. Across several major indices, average returns for the month are low to negative, and it is essentially a coin flip as to whether an index will finish higher or lower. In other words, there is no strong directional bias in August.
從多個主要指數來看，八月並不是股票歷史上的好月份。該月的平均回報低到負數，而指數的漲跌基本上是個硬幣翻轉，無明顯趨勢。換句話說，八月沒有明顯的方向偏向。
Some investors may think all months are a coin flip as to whether a stock index will go higher or not, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Some months are much stronger than others.
有些投資者可能認爲所有月份股票指數漲跌是硬幣翻轉的概率，但事實並非如此。有些月份比其他月份更強勢。
For example, the S&P 500 has moved higher in 16 out of the last 20 Aprils and Novembers (80%), with average gains of 2% and 2.5%, respectively. The S&P 500 has moved higher in July 75% of the time over the last 20 years, with an average gain of 2.4%. Those are the best months of the year for stocks, with upside biases.
例如，標普500指數在過去20個四月和11月中有16個月上漲（佔比80%），平均漲幅分別爲2%和2.5%。在過去20年中，標普500指數在七月上漲的概率爲75%，平均漲幅爲2.4%。這些是股票市場最好的月份，意味着有上漲的趨勢。
For comparison, here's how August has historically performed in various indices.
作爲比較，以下是歷年各指數八月表現的情況。
The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY).
標普500指數，由SPDR標普500ETF（紐交所：SPY）跟蹤。
- 12 out of the last 20 years it has moved up in the month (60%), with an average gain of 0.1%.
- 在過去20年中，它在八月中上漲了12次（佔比60%），平均漲幅爲0.1%。
The Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ)
納斯達克100指數，由納指100ETF - 英威騰QQQ跟蹤（納斯達克：QQQ）。
- 11 out of the last 20 years it has moved up in the month (55%), with an average gain of 0.7%.
- 在過去20年中，它在八月中上漲了11次（佔比55%），平均漲幅爲0.7%。
The NYSE Composite Index is a broad measure of stock performance, including companies of varying sizes and industries.
紐約證券交易所綜合指數是衡量股票表現的廣泛指標，包括各種規模和行業的公司。
- 10 of the last 20 years it has moved higher in August (50%). The average return for the month is -0.6%.
- 在過去20年中，它有10次在八月上漲的記錄（佔比50%）。該月份的平均回報爲-0.6%。
So are there any stock market bright spots in August?
那麼，八月是否有任何股市亮點？
Possibly, but when looking at seasonal patterns in Sector ETFs, they told the same story as the stock indices. None of the sector ETFs had strong historical performance in August.
可能有，但當調查板塊ETF的季節性變化時，它們的歷史表現與股票指數相同。所有板塊ETF在八月份均沒有強烈表現。
Most stocks move with the direction of the indices, but there are occasionally ones that perform strongly while the stock indices are weak or flat. These can be found by looking for price momentum in a stock scanner.
大多數股票與指數方向相同，但偶爾有些股票表現良好，而股票指數卻表現疲軟或平穩。可以通過股票掃描儀查找價格動量來找到這些股票。
The study of how stock indices have historically performed at a certain time of year is called seasonality. It doesn't necessarily predict what will happen this year, it only tells us what has happened in the past. It should not be relied on exclusively for trading or investing decisions. Use it, or don't use it, in conjunction with a personalized trading/investing plan.
股票指數在特定時間段內的歷史表現研究稱爲季節性。這並不一定預測今年會發生什麼，它只告訴我們過去發生了什麼。不能僅僅依靠它來進行交易或投資決策。應該在個性化的交易/投資計劃中使用它或不使用它。
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
本文來自非報酬的外部投稿人。它不代表Benzinga的報道，並且沒有因爲內容或準確性而被編輯。