HSBC 2024 Outlook: Sees NII Of Around $43B And RoTE In The Mid-Teens; Expects To Maintain the CET1 Capital Ratio Within 14% To 14.5%
HSBC 2024 Outlook: Sees NII Of Around $43B And RoTE In The Mid-Teens; Expects To Maintain the CET1 Capital Ratio Within 14% To 14.5%
Outlook
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We will now target a return on average tangible equity ('RoTE'), excluding the impact of notable items, in the mid-teens for both 2024 and 2025.
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Based upon our current forecasts, we expect banking NII of around $43bn in 2024. This guidance remains dependent on the path of interest rates globally.
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While loan growth was 1% in 1H24, revenue has continued to benefit from elevated interest rates. Over the medium to long term, we continue to expect mid-single digit year-on-year percentage growth in customer lending.
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We are reiterating our cost growth guidance of approximately 5% for 2024 compared with 2023, on a target basis, and now expect ECL charges as a percentage of average gross loans in 2024 to be within our medium-term planning range of 30bps to 40bps (including customer lending balances transferred to held for sale).
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Our guidance reflects our current outlook for the global macroeconomic environment, including customer and financial markets activity. This includes our modelling of a number of market dependent factors, such as market-implied interest rates (as of mid-July 2024), as well as customer behaviour and activity levels.
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We intend to manage our CET1 capital ratio within our medium-term target range of 14% to 14.5%, with a dividend payout ratio target basis of 50% for 2024, which excludes material notable items and related impacts.
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Note: we do not reconcile our forward guidance on RoTE excluding notable items, target basis operating expenses, dividend payout ratio target basis or banking NII to their equivalent reported measures.
外表
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現在,我們的目標是將2024年和2025年的平均有形資產回報率(“RoTE”)(不包括重要項目的影響)設定在十幾歲左右。
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根據我們目前的預測,我們預計2024年銀行業的NII約爲430億美元。該指導仍然取決於全球利率走勢。
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儘管24年上半年貸款增長了1%,但收入繼續受益於利率的提高。從中長期來看,我們仍然預計客戶貸款同比增長中等個位數。
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我們重申了2024年與2023年相比約5%的成本增長指導方針,現在預計2024年ECL費用佔平均貸款總額的百分比將在我們的30個點子至40個點子的中期規劃區間內(包括轉爲持有待售的客戶貸款餘額)。
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我們的指導反映了我們當前對全球宏觀經濟環境的展望,包括客戶和金融市場活動。這包括我們對許多市場依賴因素的建模,例如市場隱含利率(截至2024年7月中旬)以及客戶行爲和活動水平。
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我們打算將CET1資本比率控制在14%至14.5%的中期目標區間內,2024年的股息支付率目標基準爲50%,其中不包括重大重要項目和相關影響。
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注意:我們對RoTE的前瞻性指導(不包括重要項目、目標基準運營支出、股息支付率目標基準或銀行業NII)與其同等報告的指標不一致。