One Analyst Expects Stocks To Soar After The Fed's Interest Rate Decision Wednesday
One Analyst Expects Stocks To Soar After The Fed's Interest Rate Decision Wednesday
The Federal Reserve and Federal Open Market Committee are scheduled to announce July's interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. Although the expectations are for the Fed to keep rates unchanged, one analyst is projecting that stock prices will surge following the announcement.
CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks the probability of Fed decisions on interest rates, shows only a 3% chance the Fed does end up cutting rates by 25 basis points Wednesday afternoon. But Fundstrat's Tom Lee said that he still expects stocks to surge higher following the announcement.
The Call: Lee says that while market participants expect interest rates to come down in September, equity traders will not begin pricing that dynamic until the decision is made final. And if Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, confirms the Fed is planning on cutting rates in September, stocks could get a boost.
"The key premise is the Fed is likely to commit to a September rate cut of at least 25bp. A possibility of more than that is not necessary," Lee said in a note released Wednesday, according to Business Insider.
聯儲局和聯邦公開市場委員會將於週三下午2點公佈7月的利率決定。儘管預期聯儲局將保持利率不變，但一位分析師預測股票價格將在宣佈後大漲。
芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具跟蹤聯邦基金利率決策的概率，顯示Fed在週三下午減息25個點子的概率僅爲3％。但Fundstrat的Tom Lee表示，他仍預計股票將在宣佈後大漲。
看漲：李龍說，雖然市場參與者預計利率將在9月份下降，但股票交易者將不會開始定價該動態，直到決策最終確定。如果聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在週三下午2:30發言時確認聯儲局計劃在9月份削減利率，股票可能會得到提振。
“關鍵前提是聯儲局可能會至少削減25bp的9月利率。不需要更多的可能性，”李龍週三發佈的一份報告在Business Insider上說。
"And while bond markets have priced in 100% probability of this, equity investors likely will not be convinced until the Fed affirms this as such."
“雖然債券市場已經定價了這100% 的可能性，但股票投資者可能不會被說服，直到聯儲局確認了這一點。”
Read Also: Fed Shouldn't Wait Until September: Poll Finds Nearly Half Want Rate Cuts Today
讀也要：Fed不應等到九月：一項調查發現近一半的人希望今天減息。
What Are The Odds? The FedWatch tool shows a 100% chance the Fed will lower rates at its September meeting, with a .2% chance that rates are reduced by 75 basis points, a 10.1% chance that rates are reduced by 50 basis points and about a 90% chance rates are reduced by 25 basis points.
可能性高嗎？FedWatch工具顯示，聯儲局在9月份會議上減息的概率爲100％，減息75個點子的概率爲0.2％，減息50個點子的概率爲10.1％，而機會減息25個點子的概率約爲90％。
Why It Matters: Big tech companies like Microsoft, Apple and others have held up well despite higher interest rates. Other sectors like clean energy, tracked by the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (NASDAQ:ICLN), have struggled in a high-interest rate environment, with the ETF trading down more than 8% year-to-date against the S&P 500 tracking ETF's gain of more than 16%.
爲什麼重要：儘管利率上升，微軟、蘋果和其他大型科技公司仍表現出色。其他部門，如iShares環球清潔能源ETF（納斯達克：ICLN）所跟蹤的清潔能源，在高利率環境下表現不佳，ETF今年迄今下跌超過8％，而S＆P 500跟蹤ETF卻上漲超過16％。
Illustration created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.
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