Is Henan Yicheng New Energy (SZSE:300080) A Risky Investment?
Is Henan Yicheng New Energy (SZSE:300080) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Henan Yicheng New Energy Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300080) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露對此毫不掩飾,他說:「最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。」當我們思考一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們可以看到,河南翼成新能源有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:300080)確實在其業務中使用了債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
債務會帶來什麼風險?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但是如果企業無法還清貸款人的債務,那麼債務就任其擺佈。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更頻繁(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的價格發行股票,永久稀釋股東,以支撐其資產負債表。當然,債務的好處在於它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它以高回報率進行再投資的能力取代公司的稀釋時。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。
What Is Henan Yicheng New Energy's Net Debt?
河南翼成新能源的淨負債是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2024 Henan Yicheng New Energy had CN¥3.06b of debt, an increase on CN¥2.29b, over one year. However, it also had CN¥2.51b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥551.4m.
你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2024年3月,河南翼成新能源在一年內有30.6元人民幣的債務,比22.9元人民幣有所增加。但是,它也有25.1元人民幣的現金,因此其淨負債爲55140萬元人民幣。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240801/0-9b6cb396d60c226c16f221cafe0d4881-0-361bdaffc851c7e718232e745fd5f749.png/big)
How Strong Is Henan Yicheng New Energy's Balance Sheet?
河南翼成新能源的資產負債表有多強?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Henan Yicheng New Energy had liabilities of CN¥6.89b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥3.38b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥2.51b as well as receivables valued at CN¥3.37b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥4.39b.
最新的資產負債表數據顯示,河南翼成新能源的負債爲68.9元人民幣,此後到期的負債爲33.8元人民幣。除了這些債務外,它還有25.1元人民幣的現金以及價值33.7元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額43.9元人民幣。
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of CN¥5.53b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
相對於其55.3元人民幣的市值,這是一座巨大的槓桿率。這表明,如果公司需要迅速支撐資產負債表,股東將被嚴重稀釋。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
我們通過以下方法來衡量公司的債務負擔與其盈利能力:將其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),並計算其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)支付利息支出(利息保障)的難易程度。因此,我們將債務與收益的關係考慮在內,包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用。
Henan Yicheng New Energy has a very low debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.2 so it is strange to see weak interest coverage, with last year's EBIT being only 0.051 times the interest expense. So while we're not necessarily alarmed we think that its debt is far from trivial. Shareholders should be aware that Henan Yicheng New Energy's EBIT was down 99% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Henan Yicheng New Energy's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
河南翼成新能源的債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率非常低,爲1.2,因此奇怪的是,利息覆蓋面薄弱,去年的息稅前利潤僅爲利息支出的0.051倍。因此,儘管我們不一定感到震驚,但我們認爲它的債務遠非微不足道。股東應該意識到,河南翼成新能源的息稅前利潤去年下降了99%。如果這種下降持續下去,那麼償還債務將比在素食大會上出售鵝肝更難。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,影響未來資產負債表狀況的是河南翼成新能源的收益。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。單擊此處查看交互式快照。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last two years, Henan Yicheng New Energy saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
最後,公司只能用冷硬現金償還債務,不能用會計利潤償還債務。因此,值得檢查一下該息稅前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去的兩年中,河南翼成新能源的自由現金流總額爲負數。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務風險大大增加。
Our View
我們的觀點
On the face of it, Henan Yicheng New Energy's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Henan Yicheng New Energy has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Henan Yicheng New Energy you should know about.
從表面上看,河南翼成新能源將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流使我們對該股持初步看法,其息稅前利潤增長率並不比一年中最繁忙的夜晚那家空蕩蕩的餐廳更具吸引力。但好的一面是,其淨負債佔息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比例是一個好兆頭,也使我們更加樂觀。在考慮了所討論的數據點之後,我們認爲河南翼成新能源的債務過多。這種風險對某些人來說是可以的,但它肯定無法滿足我們的需求。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有它們,我們已經發現了一個你應該知道的河南翼成新能源警示標誌。
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
當一切都說完之後,有時更容易將注意力集中在甚至不需要債務的公司上。讀者現在可以100%免費訪問淨負債爲零的成長型股票清單。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂嗎?請直接聯繫我們。或者,也可以發送電子郵件至編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎?直接聯繫我們。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team@simplywallst.com