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After Jerome Powell Hinted That Rate Cut Is Round The Corner, Investors Caution Soft Landing 'Risks Are Two-Sided'

After Jerome Powell Hinted That Rate Cut Is Round The Corner, Investors Caution Soft Landing 'Risks Are Two-Sided'

在傑羅姆·鮑威爾暗示減息就在眼前之時,投資者謹慎認爲軟着陸的風險是雙面的。
Benzinga ·  08/01 03:53

The U.S. Federal Reserve's impending rate cuts have investors questioning the potential impact on the economy. The primary concern is whether the Fed can achieve a smooth economic transition without stalling growth or reigniting inflation.

美國聯邦儲備委員會即將減息,這讓投資者開始質疑其對經濟的潛在影響。主要關注點在於,聯儲能否在不阻礙增長或重新點燃通貨膨脹的情況下實現經濟平穩過渡。

What Happened: Investors are evaluating the Federal Reserve's capacity to execute a "soft landing" for the economy, Reuters reported Thursday. The strategy involves reducing inflation without significantly affecting growth, a tactic that has enhanced asset prices this year.

事件經過:據路透社週四報道,投資者正在評估聯儲局實施經濟“軟着陸”的能力。這一策略旨在降低通貨膨脹率而不顯著影響增長,這種策略使得今年的資產價格得到了提高。

On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank might cut rates in September if inflation continues to cool. The Fed had chosen to hold the interest rate steady at 5.25-5.5% for the eighth consecutive meeting in July. This is the strongest indication yet that officials are gearing up to ease monetary policy soon.

週三,聯儲局主席鮑威爾暗示如果通貨膨脹持續降溫,聯邦儲備委員會可能會在9月份降低利率。在7月份舉行的第8次連續會議上,聯儲局選擇將利率保持在5.25%-5.5%不變。這是官員們即將輕鬆貨幣政策的最強烈跡象。

However, this signal has not entirely placated investors. Some argue that the Fed has kept rates high for too long, potentially endangering the chances of a successful economic soft landing. Others fear that loosening monetary policy amid a relatively strong economy could spark inflation, limiting the Fed's ability to further cut rates.

然而,這個信號並沒有完全使投資者平靜。有些人認爲聯儲局長時間保持高利率,可能危及成功實現經濟軟着陸的機會。其他人則擔心在相對強勁的經濟環境下放寬貨幣政策可能會引發通貨膨脹,從而限制聯儲局進一步減息的能力。

"There are reasons to think the soft landing is still alive ... but the risks are two-sided," said George Catrambone, head of fixed income and trading at DWS.

DWS內的固定收益和交易主管George Catrambone表示:“有理由認爲軟着陸仍然存在,但風險是雙向的。”

"Soft landings don't materialize by waiting too long."

“軟着陸不會因爲等待時間太久而實現。”

Some investors are also concerned about rate cuts taking longer to keep the growth momentum, thus increasing the chance of a recession.

一些投資者還擔心減息需要更長時間來保持經濟增長勢頭,從而增加了經濟衰退的可能性。

Jack McIntyre, of Brandywine Global Investment Management said, "Even if the Fed starts in September, it might not be enough to alter the course of the economy going into 2025."

Brandywine Global Investment Management的Jack McIntyre表示:“即使聯儲局在9月份開始減息,也可能不足以改變經濟走向,進入2025年。”

As of Wednesday, futures tied to the Fed's policy rate showed investors pricing in an 87% chance of a September 25 basis-point cut. Despite this, U.S. stocks maintained sharp gains, with the S&P 500 closing up 1.6%.

截至週三,與聯儲局政策利率掛鉤的期貨顯示,投資者將9月減息25個點子的概率定價爲87%。儘管如此,美國股市仍保持明顯的上漲,標普500指數收盤上漲1.6%。

Investors are now eagerly awaiting Friday's employment data report and the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium later this month for further insights into the economy's trajectory.

投資者們現在熱切期待着本週五的就業數據報告和本月晚些時候的聯儲局傑克遜霍爾研討會,以獲取更進一步的經濟發展信息。

Why It Matters: There is also an increasing likelihood of more fed rate cuts in the first half of 2025, according to market economists.

爲什麼重要:市場經濟學家認爲,在2025年上半年有更多的聯合國利率減息的可能性越來越大。

"Encouraging inflation news and a further rise in the unemployment rate have pushed Fed officials closer to cutting," Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a recent note. Mericle said the July CPI report would be enough to lead to a September rate cut.  

高盛經濟學家David Mericle在最近的一份報告中表示:“鼓勵性的通貨膨脹新聞和失業率的進一步上升將使聯儲局官員更接近削減利率。” Mericle認爲,7月的消費者價格指數報告足以引發9月減息。

After the Federal Reserve decided at its Wednesday meeting to keep the key interest rate between 5.25% and 5.5%, Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said the committee held rates steady and made a "dovish change" to its July statement to indicate that the time for rate cuts is near.

在聯儲局週三會議決定將關鍵利率保持在5.25%至5.5%之後,聯信銀行首席經濟學家Bill Adams表示,委員會穩定利率並在7月的聲明中做出“鴿派變化”,表示減息的時機臨近。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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