Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues
Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues
The market shrugged off Saia, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SAIA) solid earnings report. We think that investors might be worried about some concerning underlying factors.
市場對Saia, Inc. (納斯達克saia) 的出色業績報告並未引起關注。我們認爲投資者可能會擔心一些令人擔憂的基本因素。
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A Closer Look At Saia's Earnings
深入探究 Saia 的盈利
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
許多投資者沒有聽說過現金流的應計比率,但它實際上是一個有用的衡量公司利潤在一個給定期間內被自由現金流(FCF)支持的度量衡。爲了得到應計比率,我們首先需要在一個期間內將FCF從利潤中減去,然後將該數額除以該期間平均營運資產。您可以認爲現金流應計比率是“非FCF盈利比率”。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
這意味着負的應計比率是一件好事,因爲它顯示公司帶來的自由現金流比其利潤所暗示的要多。雖然擁有正的應計比率不是問題,表明一定水平的非現金利潤,但高的應計比率可以說是一件壞事,因爲它表明紙面利潤與現金流不匹配。引用Lewellen和Resutek 2014年的一篇論文“具有更高應計的公司趨向於在未來盈利更少”。
Saia has an accrual ratio of 0.40 for the year to June 2024. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Even though it reported a profit of US$380.7m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through US$371m in the last year. It's worth noting that Saia generated positive FCF of US$118m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past.
對於二零二四年六月的一整年,Saia的預付賬款比率爲0.40。通常情況下,這對未來的盈利能力是不利的。確實,在這段時間內,公司沒有產生任何自由現金流。儘管它報告了3.8070億美元的利潤,但自由現金流卻表明它在過去一年中實際上燒掉了3.7100億美元。值得注意的是,一年前Saia創造了1.18億美元的正自由現金流,所以至少他們過去做到了這一點。
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
這可能會讓您想知道分析師對未來盈利能力的預測。幸運的是,您可以單擊此處查看基於其估計的未來盈利能力的互動圖表。
Our Take On Saia's Profit Performance
我們對Saia的盈利業績評論
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Saia didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Saia's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. If you want to do dive deeper into Saia, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Saia, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
正如我們已經明確表達的那樣,我們有些擔心Saia沒有利用自由現金流支持去年的利潤。因此,我們認爲Saia的基礎盈利能力可能低於其法定利潤。但好消息是,它在過去三年中的每股收益增長非常令人印象深刻。本文的目的是評估我們可以多少依賴法定盈利來反映公司潛力,但還有很多要考慮的因素。如果您想深入了解Saia,您還需要研究它目前面臨的風險。在投資風險方面,我們已經確定了一個Saia的警告信號,並且理解這一點應成爲您的投資過程的一部分。
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Saia's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
今天,我們將重點關注單個數據點,以更好地了解Saia利潤的性質。但是還有很多其他方法可以幫助您形成對公司的看法。例如,許多人認爲高股本回報率是有利的商業經濟指標,而其他人則喜歡“追蹤資金流動”,尋找內部人士正在購買的股票。因此,您可能希望查看這個自由的公司收藏,它們擁有高股本回報率,或這個擁有高內部所有權的股票列表。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。