Job Creation Tumbles in July, Higher Unemployment Strengthens Case For Interest Rate Cuts: Is The Fed Slow On The Draw?
Job Creation Tumbles in July, Higher Unemployment Strengthens Case For Interest Rate Cuts: Is The Fed Slow On The Draw?
The pace of job creation slowed in July, signaling cooling labor market conditions and strengthening the case for imminent interest rate cuts as early as next month.
七月份的就業增長步伐放緩，意味着勞動力市場條件正在降溫，強化了下月可能立即減息的理由。
The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs last month, down from the revised figure of 179,000 jobs in June, according to official data released Friday.
根據上週五公佈的官方數據，美國經濟上個月新增114,000個就業崗位，低於6月份修正後的179,000個就業崗位。
July Employment Situation: Key Highlights
7月就業形勢：主要亮點
- Nonfarm payrolls came in at 150,000 last month, a slowdown of 63,000 from June, and well below the economist consensus estimate of 175,000 according to TradingEconomics.
- The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, contrary to expectations of it remaining unchanged.
- Wage growth showed further signs of cooling, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.3% in June and slightly below expectations.
- On an annual basis, average hourly earnings were 3.6% higher compared to June 2023, down from 3.9% in June and below expectations of 3.7%.
- 根據TradingEconomics的數據，上個月非農就業人數爲150,000人，比6月份下降了63,000人，遠低於經濟學家預計的175,000人。
- 失業率從4.1%上升至4.3%，與預期相反。
- 工資增長顯示出進一步降溫的跡象，平均每小時收入環比增長0.2%，低於6月份的0.3%，略微低於預期。
- 從年度角度看，平均每小時工資比2023年6月份高出3.6%，低於6月份的3.9%，低於預期的3.7%。
| July 2024 | Consensus | June 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 114,000 | 175,000 | 179,000 (downwardly revised from 206,000) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4% |
| Average hourly earnings (m/m) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Average hourly earnings (y/y) | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% |
| 2024年7月 | 共識 | 2024年6月 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非農業就業崗位 | 114,000 | 175,000 | 179,000 （從206,000個就業人數下調） |
| 失業率 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4% |
| 平均每小時收入（環比） | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 平均每小時收入（同比） | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% |
Market Reactions
市場反應
Treasury yields dropped sharply on Friday as investors turned to safe-haven assets in response to escalating economic and geopolitical risks.
在經濟和地緣政治風險升級的情況下，投資者轉向避險資產，美國國債收益率週五急劇下降。
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), tumbled 0.7%.
由Invesco Db USD Index Bullish Fund ETF（紐約證券交易所：UUP）跟蹤的美元指數（DXY）下跌了0.7%。
Futures on U.S. indices traded sharply in the red, reflecting rising risk aversion in equity markets. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index were 1.6% lower at 8:35 a.m. in New York, while those on the Nasdaq 100 were 2.3% lower.
美國指數期貨大幅下跌，反映出股市風險規避情緒的上升。截至紐約時間上午8:35，標普500指數期貨下跌1.6%，納斯達克100期貨下跌2.3%。
On Thursday, tech stocks, as monitored through the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) tumbled 2.6%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) fell 1.4%.
上週四，由Invesco QQQ Trust（納斯達克：QQQ）監測到的科技股下跌了2.6%。 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust（紐交所：SPY）下跌了1.4%。
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Photo via Shutterstock.
圖片來自Shutterstock。