Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Omnicell, Inc. (NASDAQ:OMCL)
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Omnicell, Inc. (NASDAQ:OMCL)
Key Insights
主要見解
- The projected fair value for Omnicell is US$48.35 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of US$38.85 suggests Omnicell is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Analyst price target for OMCL is US$33.57 which is 31% below our fair value estimate
- 基於兩階段自由現金流對股權的預測公平價值爲Omnicell的目標價值爲48.35美元
- 以38.85美元的股價來看,Omnicell股票可能接近其公允價值
- OMCL的分析師目標價爲33.57美元,比我們的公允價值預估低31%
Does the August share price for Omnicell, Inc. (NASDAQ:OMCL) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
奧姆尼賽爾公司(NASDAQ:OMCL)的8月股價是否反映了其真實價值?今天,我們將通過折現現金流估算其股票的內在價值。這次,我們將使用折現現金流模型。儘管它看起來可能相當複雜,但實際上沒有那麼複雜。
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
我們要警告的是,有許多方法可以對一個公司進行估值,並且與DCF一樣,每種技術在某些情況下都有優勢和劣勢。如果您仍然對這種類型的估值有一些燃燒的問題,請查看Simply Wall St的分析模型。
The Calculation
計算方法
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我們使用所謂的2階段模型,這意味着我們有兩個不同的現金流增長期。一般來說,第一個階段是高增長,第二個階段是低增長。在第一個階段,我們需要估計未來10年業務的現金流。在可能的情況下,我們使用分析師的預測,但當這些不可用時,我們就會從上一個估計值或報告值推斷出上一個自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流下降的公司將減緩縮小速度,而增長的自由現金流的公司在此期間增長率將放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映增長傾向於在早期比在後期更爲緩慢。
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
DCF的核心概念是未來的每一美元都比現在的每一美元更不值錢,因此我們將這些未來的現金流貼現到當今的價值:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
10年自由現金流(FCF)預測
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$41.4m | US$63.6m | US$81.8m | US$95.6m | US$106.0m | US$114.8m | US$122.3m | US$128.8m | US$134.6m | US$139.8m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 10.79% | Est @ 8.31% | Est @ 6.56% | Est @ 5.35% | Est @ 4.49% | Est @ 3.89% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2% | US$38.7 | US$55.4 | US$66.5 | US$72.5 | US$75.0 | US$75.8 | US$75.4 | US$74.1 | US$72.3 | US$70.1 |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
槓桿自由現金流 ($, 百萬) | 4140萬美元 | 6360萬美元 | 8180萬美元 | 95.6m美元 | 1.06億美元 | 1.148億美元 | 1.223億美元。 | 1.288億美元 | 1年自由現金流(FCF)=134.6百萬美元 | 1.398億美元 |
增長率估計來源 | 分析師x1 | 分析師x1 | 分析師x1 | 分析師x1 | 10.79%的估計值。 | 估值增長率爲8.31% | 預計 @ 6.56%。 | 以5.35%的估值增長率爲估計值 | 預計增長率爲4.49% | 估計增長率3.89% |
現值($,百萬)按7.2%折現 | 38.7 | 55.4美元 | 66.5美元 | 72.5美元 | 75.0美元 | 75.8 美元 | 75.4美元 | 74.1美元 | 72.3 美元 | 70.1美元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$676m
("Est" = Simply Wall St 估計的自由現金流增長率)
10年現金流的現值(PVCF)= 6.76億美元
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.
第二階段也稱爲終止價值,即企業在第一階段之後的現金流量。使用戈登增長模型,以未來年增長率爲2.5%的10年政府債券收益率的5年平均值來計算終止價值。我們以7.2%的股權成本折現終止現金流到今天的價值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$140m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.5%) = US$3.1b
終止價值(TV)= FCF2034×(1 + g)÷(r - g)= 14億美元×(1 + 2.5%)÷(7.2% - 2.5%)= 31億美元
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.1b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)10= US$1.5b
終止價值的現值(PVTV)= TV /(1 + r)10= 31億美元÷(1 + 7.2%)10= 15億美元
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.2b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$38.9, the company appears about fair value at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
總價值是未來十年現金流折現值和折現的終止價值之和,這在本例中爲22億美元。在最後一步,我們將權益價值除以已發行股票的數量。相對於當前股價38.9美元,該公司似乎以20%的折扣大致相當於公允價值。但是,估值是不精確的工具,就像望遠鏡一樣——稍微移動一些角度,就會進入不同的星系。請記住這一點。
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The Assumptions
假設
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Omnicell as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.129. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
以上計算非常依賴於兩個假設,一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。您不必同意這些輸入,但我建議您重新計算並嘗試進行調整。DCF還未考慮所在行業的潛在週期性,或者企業未來的資本需求,因此它不能全面反映公司的潛在表現。考慮到我們正在考慮Omnicell的潛在股東,所以使用的是股權成本而不是資本成本(或資本加權平均成本,WACC)進行貼現。在這個計算中,我們使用了基於行業可比公司的平均貝塔值爲1.129的負債財務貝塔。貝塔是反映市場風險的度量,而我們通過行業最大可比公司的平均貝塔值來得到貝塔,這是一個合理的穩定企業負債財務貝塔的範圍爲0.8-2.0之間。
Moving On:
接下來:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Omnicell, we've compiled three additional elements you should assess:
估值是構建投資論題的一個方面,並不是爲公司進行全面分析的唯一依據。DCF模型並不是一個完美的股票估值工具。相反,它應該被看作是指導“這支股票是被低估還是被高估需要滿足什麼假設?” 如果一家公司增長速度不同,或者其股權成本或無風險利率急劇變化,輸出看起來可能完全不同。對於Omnicell,我們還編制了三個您應該評估的額外要素:
- Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Omnicell .
- Future Earnings: How does OMCL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- 風險:因此,您應該注意到我們已經發現的1個Omnicell警告標誌。
- 未來收益:OMCL的增長率如何與其同行和整個市場相比?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表進行互動,深入了解未來幾年的分析師一致預期數。
- 其他高質量選擇:你喜歡一個好的多面手嗎?瀏覽我們的高質量股票交互列表,了解還有哪些你可能錯過的好東西!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都會更新其對每隻美國股票的折現現金流計算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的內在價值,只需在此搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對本文有任何反饋?對內容有任何疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。